Starting with two key coins: BSV and BCH
Both had mega pumps and could potentially retested their breakout zones. Even if they don't continue up in the next few weeks, these zones could provide good short term longs. Bitcoin dominance has fallen of a cliff and clear broke down... Lots of things like BTC.D, Bull market percentage and key large caps pumping along with Bitcoin are quite bullish. As are the facts that the Altcoin market cap looks like Nasdaq in 2009, as well as that lots of alts were and have been going sideways against Bitcoin for more than 3 months.
Just to be clear, I am not saying everything will pump. From the current alts maybe a mere 10-20% might survive over the next 2 years. Since August have provided decent opportunities for anyone that put even minimum effort into researching them. From personal observation, after 4 months of following alts closely the minute I started ignoring them even if I knew I was wrong (to only look at Bitcoin or even stocks etc). Usually either I never give up or I am the last person to give up (temporarily).
Alts correcting further would probably mean Bitcoin will probably have a dip too, but not something major as support is near. Alts could continue their frenzy after a 2 year long bear market and a complete wreckage both in USD and BTC terms. Initially large caps are the ones that matter the most and longing them in USD pairs might be the best way to play this. After two clear traps for alts and a decent rising wedge, they broke below all trendlines and the 200 DMA, with most of it being because of BSV which isn't healthy... BSV isn't a typical shitcoin, it is the shittiest crap out there run by the shittiest people who we don't know what could they be planning. One of their previous pumps ended with a BTC mega dump and another with a BTC mega pump... Anyways hitting S3 provided good support for BTC.D, but this doesn't mean the down trend can't continue.
Now let's get to Bitcoin charts. For weeks and maybe even months I waited for 8000 and 8400 were I wanted to short. Those levels came, but the market continued higher, broke above the log channel, broke above the all the S/R flips, broke above the 128 & 300 DMA death cross, above the 200 DMA on CME which it turned into support, closed above the R3 monthly Fibonacci pivot and broke above the P Yearly Fibonacci pivot... which all invalidated my initial idea. They weren't the only things that invalidated my idea as I saw many other non technical stuff that changed my mind, but for now I still haven't changed my bias, rather I have remained neutral for reason I will explain soon.
Before the breakouts, it had shown signs clear signs of accumulation (or re-distribution) for weeks after perfectly retesting the VP PoC at 6400, where it had also filled some anomalies and gaps. Currently it is above this range's PoC and near the large volume gap. During the run to 8400 there was significant speculation that it was driven by the US-Iran conflict... however the strong bounce at 7700 showed that the market clearly had the potential to get up there without people looking at Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
As you can already see Bitcoin has a clear short term bullish structure. It is above most of its major MAs and it is making clear higher highs while old resistance is turning into support. However we still haven't fully invalidated the previous long term bearish structure. For this to happen Bitcoin would have to close above 9300 or even 10k based on how you see it. We are currently clearly overbought (it can stay like this for a while) and we are getting at a resistance cluster. From 8800 and above there is a gap on the PoC, from 9000 to 9250 there is a combo of old monthly pivots, there is the weekly R3, the 200 & 234 DMAs (trending down) and finally a key resistance area (from old support turning into resistance).
What is clear is that right now for me there is no clear edge. My original expectation was that it would go below 6400 after hitting 8400 but that thing looks like a distant dream at the moment (previous plan invalidated). My current plan is to wait for some great entries which are long 8200 & then 7600 if I get stopped out (both with tight stops), and on the short side short 9050 with a stop above 9500. So before I see 10k broken I remain mostly neutral as trends are clashing and will wait for the market to come to me rather than trying to push it. Even though there are some other concepts I use in my trading that I don't wanna go into here, which still are telling me Bitcoin isn't ready to moon ... I am personally ready to start longing Bitcoin above 10k.
Because I don't want to make this too long, there will be another analysis that will solely focus on premiums, open interest, funding, basis, sentiment, price models and key concepts which is coming right after I will post this. Will add it on the comments below when it is done.
Both had mega pumps and could potentially retested their breakout zones. Even if they don't continue up in the next few weeks, these zones could provide good short term longs. Bitcoin dominance has fallen of a cliff and clear broke down... Lots of things like BTC.D, Bull market percentage and key large caps pumping along with Bitcoin are quite bullish. As are the facts that the Altcoin market cap looks like Nasdaq in 2009, as well as that lots of alts were and have been going sideways against Bitcoin for more than 3 months.
Just to be clear, I am not saying everything will pump. From the current alts maybe a mere 10-20% might survive over the next 2 years. Since August have provided decent opportunities for anyone that put even minimum effort into researching them. From personal observation, after 4 months of following alts closely the minute I started ignoring them even if I knew I was wrong (to only look at Bitcoin or even stocks etc). Usually either I never give up or I am the last person to give up (temporarily).
Alts correcting further would probably mean Bitcoin will probably have a dip too, but not something major as support is near. Alts could continue their frenzy after a 2 year long bear market and a complete wreckage both in USD and BTC terms. Initially large caps are the ones that matter the most and longing them in USD pairs might be the best way to play this. After two clear traps for alts and a decent rising wedge, they broke below all trendlines and the 200 DMA, with most of it being because of BSV which isn't healthy... BSV isn't a typical shitcoin, it is the shittiest crap out there run by the shittiest people who we don't know what could they be planning. One of their previous pumps ended with a BTC mega dump and another with a BTC mega pump... Anyways hitting S3 provided good support for BTC.D, but this doesn't mean the down trend can't continue.
Now let's get to Bitcoin charts. For weeks and maybe even months I waited for 8000 and 8400 were I wanted to short. Those levels came, but the market continued higher, broke above the log channel, broke above the all the S/R flips, broke above the 128 & 300 DMA death cross, above the 200 DMA on CME which it turned into support, closed above the R3 monthly Fibonacci pivot and broke above the P Yearly Fibonacci pivot... which all invalidated my initial idea. They weren't the only things that invalidated my idea as I saw many other non technical stuff that changed my mind, but for now I still haven't changed my bias, rather I have remained neutral for reason I will explain soon.
Before the breakouts, it had shown signs clear signs of accumulation (or re-distribution) for weeks after perfectly retesting the VP PoC at 6400, where it had also filled some anomalies and gaps. Currently it is above this range's PoC and near the large volume gap. During the run to 8400 there was significant speculation that it was driven by the US-Iran conflict... however the strong bounce at 7700 showed that the market clearly had the potential to get up there without people looking at Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
As you can already see Bitcoin has a clear short term bullish structure. It is above most of its major MAs and it is making clear higher highs while old resistance is turning into support. However we still haven't fully invalidated the previous long term bearish structure. For this to happen Bitcoin would have to close above 9300 or even 10k based on how you see it. We are currently clearly overbought (it can stay like this for a while) and we are getting at a resistance cluster. From 8800 and above there is a gap on the PoC, from 9000 to 9250 there is a combo of old monthly pivots, there is the weekly R3, the 200 & 234 DMAs (trending down) and finally a key resistance area (from old support turning into resistance).
What is clear is that right now for me there is no clear edge. My original expectation was that it would go below 6400 after hitting 8400 but that thing looks like a distant dream at the moment (previous plan invalidated). My current plan is to wait for some great entries which are long 8200 & then 7600 if I get stopped out (both with tight stops), and on the short side short 9050 with a stop above 9500. So before I see 10k broken I remain mostly neutral as trends are clashing and will wait for the market to come to me rather than trying to push it. Even though there are some other concepts I use in my trading that I don't wanna go into here, which still are telling me Bitcoin isn't ready to moon ... I am personally ready to start longing Bitcoin above 10k.
Because I don't want to make this too long, there will be another analysis that will solely focus on premiums, open interest, funding, basis, sentiment, price models and key concepts which is coming right after I will post this. Will add it on the comments below when it is done.