BITCOIN Is this a Bear Cycle or just a mid-Bull correction?

That is the question on everyone's mind right now following Bitcoin's -50% crash from April's $65000 top. To get a better understanding I've used the 1D time-frame, comparing the current sequence to the 2019 and 2013 mid-Bull corrections and the Bear Cycles of 2018, 2014 and 2011.

* The common characteristic on mid-Bull corrections is that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was hit after a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross got formed.

* On the other hand, with the exception of 2013, when Bull Cycles ended, the 1D MA200 was hit before a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross.

* The initial bottom (red arrow) on all was made on the symmetrical low of the last pull-back before the top (red zones on all charts).

* Following the initial bottom and after the 1D MA200 broke, all fractals hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the first rebound.

Do you think the current sequence has more in common with Bear Cycles or mid-Bull corrections? Will we see a rebound to the 1D MA50 either way? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


p.s. As far as the 2019 mid-Bull correction is concerned, I don't count the March 2020 crash as a continuation to the bottom due to that being an extraordinary fundamental event (pandemics happen once every 100 years).


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