Bitcoin in April / May 2021: the road to a new ATH!
BTC & CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE: Like I updated last night already when we were right in the action; it is / was time to shop crypto again! I see some people confused over what happened last night so let me explain. First off; to my followers this shouldnt have come as a surprise as I clearly stated that I expected a dump and a recovery right after. You can check my last posts; even my bearish ones and its all in there. We bounced beautifully from the 700 EMA (black line) and the bull market support trend line that was support all the way back in the corona dump of last March. This is a very bullish sign as the last time we bounced off from the 700 EMA we had massive pumps to the upside. (scroll back in the chart to see it)
END OF THE BEAR TREND
So for last week's bearish scenario we had a target of 44K; a target that I stated at a BTC price of 64K already. Now we almost hit the target as we went down to 46K to immediately recover in the same move. So basically everyone who went short on the move down got tricked and stopped out or liquidated as the market maker immediately went for the zone of liquidity; which is obviously bring the price back above 51K. This forced many traders to close shorts or get liquidated which boosted the price even more. My short signal was well above 57K and I would never advise to short a bottom. Instead I closed my shorts at 47K and immediately opened a long after that which is well in profit right now. So in essence; the move down was just to induce traders to go short and grab liquidity (BTC) from them.
BTC MAY 2021
With the upcoming CME futures expiration I expect BTC to stall around 53-56K levels at date of expiration and then shortly after make a move to the upside. This would mean most longs from last month are in loss but traders will see hope for recovery which induces them to extend their future to next month's expiration and we might see some shorts getting closed or liquidated; which will boost the price. So what I project is the BTC price to stay in zone 1 untill futures expiration and move to zone 2 next week / weekend. We might already see a move to zone 2 next weekend given we grabbed enough liquidity around the mid 50's levels. This means we can move easily into zone 3, 4 and maybe even 5 in the month of May. If we see BTC move into zone 6; we might (not will!) go parabolic to way higher price targets but nothing can be said of that right now; however if we break level 6 and move a level higher; we are making a massive move. It is not what I project and thats why the box is red but it is a scenario we keep in mind.
BTC THIS WEEK
At this very moment we are fighting a heavy resistance cluster inside the orange circle; we can break it now or in the next days. BTC could come down again to consolidate inside box 1; which is totally fine. We want BTC to at least stay inside box 1 and above 51K to have further confirmation for a bullish trend. Another point is that we want to see the RSI break the 61,6 levels and set a new high to confirm a bull trend. (green cirlce in RSI) I project BTC to hit box 2 this week and to range trade there until the futures expire this Friday. We will have to see what happens on Friday but I project a move to the upside; however we need to stay sharp to see how the CME futures traders react to last month's price swings. Long live the bull market!
END OF THE BEAR TREND
So for last week's bearish scenario we had a target of 44K; a target that I stated at a BTC price of 64K already. Now we almost hit the target as we went down to 46K to immediately recover in the same move. So basically everyone who went short on the move down got tricked and stopped out or liquidated as the market maker immediately went for the zone of liquidity; which is obviously bring the price back above 51K. This forced many traders to close shorts or get liquidated which boosted the price even more. My short signal was well above 57K and I would never advise to short a bottom. Instead I closed my shorts at 47K and immediately opened a long after that which is well in profit right now. So in essence; the move down was just to induce traders to go short and grab liquidity (BTC) from them.
BTC MAY 2021
With the upcoming CME futures expiration I expect BTC to stall around 53-56K levels at date of expiration and then shortly after make a move to the upside. This would mean most longs from last month are in loss but traders will see hope for recovery which induces them to extend their future to next month's expiration and we might see some shorts getting closed or liquidated; which will boost the price. So what I project is the BTC price to stay in zone 1 untill futures expiration and move to zone 2 next week / weekend. We might already see a move to zone 2 next weekend given we grabbed enough liquidity around the mid 50's levels. This means we can move easily into zone 3, 4 and maybe even 5 in the month of May. If we see BTC move into zone 6; we might (not will!) go parabolic to way higher price targets but nothing can be said of that right now; however if we break level 6 and move a level higher; we are making a massive move. It is not what I project and thats why the box is red but it is a scenario we keep in mind.
BTC THIS WEEK
At this very moment we are fighting a heavy resistance cluster inside the orange circle; we can break it now or in the next days. BTC could come down again to consolidate inside box 1; which is totally fine. We want BTC to at least stay inside box 1 and above 51K to have further confirmation for a bullish trend. Another point is that we want to see the RSI break the 61,6 levels and set a new high to confirm a bull trend. (green cirlce in RSI) I project BTC to hit box 2 this week and to range trade there until the futures expire this Friday. We will have to see what happens on Friday but I project a move to the upside; however we need to stay sharp to see how the CME futures traders react to last month's price swings. Long live the bull market!
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IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
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IMPORTANT COMMENTS ON BTC AND CRYPTO:
BEARISH: we have a MACD cross on BTC on the weekly which normally indicates a bear market. However if we manage to cross over again in the next few weeks; it was just a touch and not a definite crossover. So stay sharp, nothing is guaranteed!
BULLISH: on the CME chart we've set a higher low even though we were right in the dump when the BTC futures opened last night. You have zoom all the way but you will see: a higher low. This sounds unimportant but its very bullish and shows where smart money wants the BTC price to go: up.
Check the chart here:
www.tradingview.com/...tures-open-26-April/
BEARISH: we have a MACD cross on BTC on the weekly which normally indicates a bear market. However if we manage to cross over again in the next few weeks; it was just a touch and not a definite crossover. So stay sharp, nothing is guaranteed!
BULLISH: on the CME chart we've set a higher low even though we were right in the dump when the BTC futures opened last night. You have zoom all the way but you will see: a higher low. This sounds unimportant but its very bullish and shows where smart money wants the BTC price to go: up.
Check the chart here:
www.tradingview.com/...tures-open-26-April/
Comment:
Looking very bullish for BTC; next week will be the main action with coming weekend as a warm up. We just had a huge wick to the upside; firstly because BTC was never meant to leave my box; it wasnt time for box 2 yet and the second reason you find here:
Comment:
BTC UPDATE: golden cross incoming on the 4hr! We covered zone 1 & 2 and are gearing up for zone 3; exactly as projected!
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