** The FAIR VALUE Channel **
So what is this channel and why is it so important? It is the orange Channel Up shown on the chart which starts with the Higher Highs and Higher Lows after the December 2018 $3200 bottom (the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle). That Channel kept the price contained from December 2018 until April 2019 and in my opinion represents Bitcoin's fair value. Why fair? Because the break above 6000 - 6500 was caused by the strong fundamentals and news at that time. It was no coincidence that the price (after peaking in June) corrected back into the Channel and made the $6500 bottom EXACTLY on its Higher Low last December (see chart).
Currently BTC is testing the Higher High (upper) of this Channel. A break-out gets us again inside the overbought zone, which as we head into the May (3rd) Halving is something that euphoric traders will most likely ignore. Especially as the sentiment will be boosted by the emerging Golden Cross, exactly as it happened with the April Golden Cross. So effectively this euphoria can make us test the $13800 multi-month high sooner than (technically) expected.
** The until the Halving **
What I want to concentrate on in this analysis is the new created by the two Channels and will most likely support us until the May Halving. The first Channel is the Fair Value I talked about and the second is the one (dotted lines) that started again on the December 2018 $3200 bottom but is on a lower slope as it includes the first two Lower Lows. As you see on the chart, this also made contact with the December 2019 $6500 bottom. Effectively that bottom was made exactly on the cross of the two Channels. The area that starts after that contact (light blue Triangle) is the one I believe will be our Support until the Halving.
This is the level which I believe long term traders should keep their attention too. As a long term trader and investor myself I always look at zone where I can add. Those who caught the $6500 bottom with us, can feel safe as most likely we won't see that level again. What we should do, is keep adding on solid technical pull backs within Bitcoin's Fair Value zone, which right now is the one I am analyzing on this study. Accumulation zones changed and that might happen in the future but we will adapt accordingly.
What do you think? Will you be buying into the Resistance break-out as a short term trader or wait for a possible pull back and add to your portfolio? Let me know in the comments section!
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BONUS - Because I talk about long term trading in this analysis, I will back up my perspective by posting below my past studies where I clearly stated that $6500 was the bottom of the correction months before it happened:
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If we were perfectly rational human beings, a Lacoste polo and a regular polo that have roughly the same production cost would have roughly the same price. And Bitcoin would have a fair value at its production cost.
But then the markets would be efficient and one could hardly make money out of them consistently...