Good morning, traders. Not a lot has changed since yesterday's pop. Price is currently printing a flag with a target of around $3890 if price moves up within the next hour or two. That's just above the $3840 target based on the height of the descending wedge that price closed above. It is also just above the 1.618 extension off the swing low to the local swing high. This would suggest that it would be a wave 3, and the 1.272 extension off waves 1-3 would be $4000 which is also the top of the flag. As suggested during yesterday's live stream, this would create a larger wave 1 with a wave 2 pullback before seeing wave 3 pushing through that resistance. That general area is also the 50 EMA, so as I have continued to state, a close above that would be significant. As always, traders should be utilizing strong risk management and waiting for confirmations before entering a position.
As noted above, price is printing a bull flag with a target of $3885 and is sitting above the H1 McGinley Dynamic. However, we could see an extension up to the R1 pivot just above it at $3925, if price moves up. A 50% retracement after reaching the $4000 level would be around $3740 and place price on top of the H12 McGinley Dynamic and blue pivot which would be bullish. A 61.8% retracement would put price right about where it is now, so my initial expectation, if price follows that path, is to see it retrace to between the 50% and 61.8% levels before blasting through the overhead resistance. The H12 MACD is curled up and targeting a bullish cross. Yesterday's D1 candle printed bullish engulfing which usually signals a bullish trend reversal, and the D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between December 7th and January 13th. As a matter of fact, it closed above the past 4 days. This should indicate that we see at least a few days of bullish momentum. However, we need confirmation today in the form of a green D1 candle. The D3 candle is printing a very nice possible reversal bullish hammer as well. That D3 candle closes at the end of the trading day, today, so if we see a move up we will get confirmation on the bullish trend reversal for the D1 as well as a strong bullish reversal candle on the D3. Last week's W1 candle was not pretty, but it found support at previous resistance, so a move up through this week could see a reversal off that candle and fuel the tanks for higher targets. Failure of the weekly candles to sustain growing upward momentum will result in hidden bearish divergence forming on MACD's histogram until price moves above $6550. So, even if price makes the move up toward $5000, it could still succumb to W1 hidden bearish divergence which is continuation of the downward trend. While things are looking bullish in the short term, a breakdown of price would suggest a move into the lower pink box and a re-evaluation at that time.
As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
As noted above, price is printing a bull flag with a target of $3885 and is sitting above the H1 McGinley Dynamic. However, we could see an extension up to the R1 pivot just above it at $3925, if price moves up. A 50% retracement after reaching the $4000 level would be around $3740 and place price on top of the H12 McGinley Dynamic and blue pivot which would be bullish. A 61.8% retracement would put price right about where it is now, so my initial expectation, if price follows that path, is to see it retrace to between the 50% and 61.8% levels before blasting through the overhead resistance. The H12 MACD is curled up and targeting a bullish cross. Yesterday's D1 candle printed bullish engulfing which usually signals a bullish trend reversal, and the D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between December 7th and January 13th. As a matter of fact, it closed above the past 4 days. This should indicate that we see at least a few days of bullish momentum. However, we need confirmation today in the form of a green D1 candle. The D3 candle is printing a very nice possible reversal bullish hammer as well. That D3 candle closes at the end of the trading day, today, so if we see a move up we will get confirmation on the bullish trend reversal for the D1 as well as a strong bullish reversal candle on the D3. Last week's W1 candle was not pretty, but it found support at previous resistance, so a move up through this week could see a reversal off that candle and fuel the tanks for higher targets. Failure of the weekly candles to sustain growing upward momentum will result in hidden bearish divergence forming on MACD's histogram until price moves above $6550. So, even if price makes the move up toward $5000, it could still succumb to W1 hidden bearish divergence which is continuation of the downward trend. While things are looking bullish in the short term, a breakdown of price would suggest a move into the lower pink box and a re-evaluation at that time.
As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
As usual, recently, here is the corrected chart display for you.
