OK, I've been reading up a little, trying to make sense of the downtrend since Dec 2017, as well as the recent rally. I admit I sold out to early, getting excited about 40% profits, and thinking a reverse is around the corner. I guess it's better to be safe than sorry, but I could have made another 30% on some alts ... oh well, no point looking in the rear view mirror.
I've decided to revisit the grand scheme, and simplify things a bit. Here's what I think. Based on Elliot wave theory, two grand schemes make sense right now, if we are to observe the rules! The first is we had a running flat ABC correction that ended at 6500, and now we begin another impulse up (and we are in wave 1 of the impulse), see RED wave. The second is we are in the D wave of a triangle wave, see ORANGE wave.
I just cannot see us ignoring this current uptrend and averaging it into wave C of an ABC correction.
So although I remain bearish in the short term, I do think that would mean we are in a triangle wave and 6700ish is the bottom. Look, obviously, no guarantees, but I'm slowly letting go of a 5k or 5.4k possibility. Maybe 6k is my worst case bottom right now, but 6700 is the highest probability.
BTC 0.92%has been trying to crack 9177 many times over the past few days, and failed. Surprisingly, it hasn't reverse yet. At some stage, whether this is wave 1 of an impulse up, or wave D of a triangle wave ... it has to reverse. 9177 seems to be giving BTC 0.92%some trouble, so I'm still planning on a reversal with a 6700ish bottom. Either way ... we have to be prepared. If we do go above 9177, still no guarantees, but it starts to drop the probability that this is a triangle wave, and that we are likely in an impulse up. The question then is, how far up will wave 1 go ... again it has to reverse at some point ... so how the heck can we play this?
The one way I know how to play this is to wait, and have confirmation. We need to see the reversal, and see the bottom of that reversal. That in both of the scenarios I have discussed (triangle or impulse wave) will be the likely lowest prices we see for some time. No doubt more potential investors are now looking more closely at BTC 0.92%, and some asking is it time to long ... it's easy to get a sense that the market is changing.
I know some are still waiting for 4k (or lower), and by no means am I dismissing that. But again, right now, based on what I see, the odds are low.
So here's my game ... by in ALTS if it goes above 9200, and make sure I put in tight stop losses in case it reverses. In fact I'll probably put in a trailing stop to try and time the sell off. If it fails here, look for an opportunity to short, with a view to take profits starting at 7200, 7000 then all out at 6800 (in case it reverses early). Then buy into ALTS at lower prices ... when I have some confirmation we have reached bottom. Start staggering bids at 6700ish, with tight stops, in case things go more south than I expect.
Remember only a fool relies on one possible outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
I've decided to revisit the grand scheme, and simplify things a bit. Here's what I think. Based on Elliot wave theory, two grand schemes make sense right now, if we are to observe the rules! The first is we had a running flat ABC correction that ended at 6500, and now we begin another impulse up (and we are in wave 1 of the impulse), see RED wave. The second is we are in the D wave of a triangle wave, see ORANGE wave.
I just cannot see us ignoring this current uptrend and averaging it into wave C of an ABC correction.
So although I remain bearish in the short term, I do think that would mean we are in a triangle wave and 6700ish is the bottom. Look, obviously, no guarantees, but I'm slowly letting go of a 5k or 5.4k possibility. Maybe 6k is my worst case bottom right now, but 6700 is the highest probability.
BTC 0.92%has been trying to crack 9177 many times over the past few days, and failed. Surprisingly, it hasn't reverse yet. At some stage, whether this is wave 1 of an impulse up, or wave D of a triangle wave ... it has to reverse. 9177 seems to be giving BTC 0.92%some trouble, so I'm still planning on a reversal with a 6700ish bottom. Either way ... we have to be prepared. If we do go above 9177, still no guarantees, but it starts to drop the probability that this is a triangle wave, and that we are likely in an impulse up. The question then is, how far up will wave 1 go ... again it has to reverse at some point ... so how the heck can we play this?
The one way I know how to play this is to wait, and have confirmation. We need to see the reversal, and see the bottom of that reversal. That in both of the scenarios I have discussed (triangle or impulse wave) will be the likely lowest prices we see for some time. No doubt more potential investors are now looking more closely at BTC 0.92%, and some asking is it time to long ... it's easy to get a sense that the market is changing.
I know some are still waiting for 4k (or lower), and by no means am I dismissing that. But again, right now, based on what I see, the odds are low.
So here's my game ... by in ALTS if it goes above 9200, and make sure I put in tight stop losses in case it reverses. In fact I'll probably put in a trailing stop to try and time the sell off. If it fails here, look for an opportunity to short, with a view to take profits starting at 7200, 7000 then all out at 6800 (in case it reverses early). Then buy into ALTS at lower prices ... when I have some confirmation we have reached bottom. Start staggering bids at 6700ish, with tight stops, in case things go more south than I expect.
Remember only a fool relies on one possible outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.