BITCOIN to 40k or 69k?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the November 21 2022 market bottom. The price broke today above the psychological level of $50000 and is about to touch that very top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.

As the 1D RSI broke above its 4-month Lower Highs trend-line and is largely overbought near 80.00, this technically resembles the same break-out of June 23 2023. As a result, as long as the 1D candles close within the Channel Up, BTC could pull-back to a 'fair' value near $40000 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Time-wise it would be ideal to reach that level before April's Halving and start attracting long-term buying interest then.

If however a 1D or even better, a 1W candle closes above the Channel Up, we will turn again largely bullish on the medium-term break-out as we can see an price action resembling the short-term Channel Up that started on October 24 2023 that paved the way for the December 08 2023 High. That High was on a +79.77% rise from the September 11 2023 Low, the last technical Higher Low of the Channel Up. A new +79.77% run from the recent January 23 2024 Low would peak marginally above $69000, which in that case will be our Target.

Which scenario do you think is more likely to prevail now? 40k or 69k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!


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