Good morning, traders. Yesterday, I advised our Discord members that I didn't like how price action and volume were acting around the $3450 range and was looking for price to target the $3400 level. Price made one more attempt after I stated that to rise higher, but then printed a bearish SFP and found support around $3400 which is the H4 S1 pivot. The move down to that level aligns with yesterday morning's update which stated we would likely see a pullback toward $3410/20.
Bitcoin price appears to be printing a very nice TR between $3370 and $3440. Currently, price is sitting just below the 15 minute pivot. If it cannot manage to close above that pivot and target the top of the TR from here, then I will be looking for it to make a push toward the bottom of the TR before doing so. H1 RSI is sitting at 41.5 and hasn't touched oversold yet, suggesting the latter scenario is likely. H4 RSI is still low, currently at 41, and continues to have room to run, suggesting that the current move upward has a good chance to target the H4 pivot at $3530 which then puts price into our blue target box.
I am still watching the yellow zone to provide support if price can close above it. This would likely open up a bullish movement above the orange resistance which should then see price targeting the R3 pivot/yellow descending resistance around $3900/$4000. None of this is to say that price will be heading to a new ATH from here, only that if price moves in that manner then that is what we should expect. The yellow resistance is significant so we should generally expect to be rejected at that point since the trend has been corrective for over a year now. By that same token, a close above it should signal more bullish strength and general targets of $4400, 4800, and possibly $5400/$5600. As always, each successive target requires monitoring of price action and volume as it reaches the previous target. At any of those points, we can see price get rejected.
Everyone on cryptotwitter and their grandmother is now calling for a possible Adam and Eve double bottom to play out as price continues to drift lower. This is a possibility that I discussed when price first reached the $3100 level. We do have H4 demand around $3240, but in order for price to retain the orange wedge, while targeting that demand, we would need to see price continuing to drift down for another week or so. Any faster than that runs the risk of dropping through the bottom of the pattern. Until that happens, I will continue to monitor the H4 RSI and watch for a push through the noted resistance. Overall, volume has continued to drop and because it's doing so in relation to the movement down since the bullish run up in mid-December, I'm more inclined to believe that it is the result of demand overcoming supply in this area (i.e. still correcting the impulsive December run up). Again, this doesn't mean that I am saying we will go straight up from here, only that at this time we may see a reversal toward the $4400 area before heading back down toward $3000 once more. The positive side of this, for those who want to see accumulation occurring, and ignore the idea of price reaching sub-$2000, is that it would mean we are currently near completion of the ST in Phase A, and if Bitcoin is creating that large TR then that signals stability in the market and alt coins should continue to provide opportunities to profit. But until we see a higher high, above the $4236 swing high from around Christmas, traders should remain suspect of accumulation.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Bitcoin price appears to be printing a very nice TR between $3370 and $3440. Currently, price is sitting just below the 15 minute pivot. If it cannot manage to close above that pivot and target the top of the TR from here, then I will be looking for it to make a push toward the bottom of the TR before doing so. H1 RSI is sitting at 41.5 and hasn't touched oversold yet, suggesting the latter scenario is likely. H4 RSI is still low, currently at 41, and continues to have room to run, suggesting that the current move upward has a good chance to target the H4 pivot at $3530 which then puts price into our blue target box.
I am still watching the yellow zone to provide support if price can close above it. This would likely open up a bullish movement above the orange resistance which should then see price targeting the R3 pivot/yellow descending resistance around $3900/$4000. None of this is to say that price will be heading to a new ATH from here, only that if price moves in that manner then that is what we should expect. The yellow resistance is significant so we should generally expect to be rejected at that point since the trend has been corrective for over a year now. By that same token, a close above it should signal more bullish strength and general targets of $4400, 4800, and possibly $5400/$5600. As always, each successive target requires monitoring of price action and volume as it reaches the previous target. At any of those points, we can see price get rejected.
Everyone on cryptotwitter and their grandmother is now calling for a possible Adam and Eve double bottom to play out as price continues to drift lower. This is a possibility that I discussed when price first reached the $3100 level. We do have H4 demand around $3240, but in order for price to retain the orange wedge, while targeting that demand, we would need to see price continuing to drift down for another week or so. Any faster than that runs the risk of dropping through the bottom of the pattern. Until that happens, I will continue to monitor the H4 RSI and watch for a push through the noted resistance. Overall, volume has continued to drop and because it's doing so in relation to the movement down since the bullish run up in mid-December, I'm more inclined to believe that it is the result of demand overcoming supply in this area (i.e. still correcting the impulsive December run up). Again, this doesn't mean that I am saying we will go straight up from here, only that at this time we may see a reversal toward the $4400 area before heading back down toward $3000 once more. The positive side of this, for those who want to see accumulation occurring, and ignore the idea of price reaching sub-$2000, is that it would mean we are currently near completion of the ST in Phase A, and if Bitcoin is creating that large TR then that signals stability in the market and alt coins should continue to provide opportunities to profit. But until we see a higher high, above the $4236 swing high from around Christmas, traders should remain suspect of accumulation.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.