BITCOIN is close to the 2021 BOTTOM fractals

Basically after yesterday's fall, Bitcoin is as close to the 2021 bottom fractals as it can ever get. Even though I've made similar comparisons in the past, it might be a good time to refresh them, as this analysis will show that Bitcoin currently shares many similarities with both the late September 2021 bottom but mostly the late June - July 2021 bottom fractal.

Similarities:

a) First of all, all fractals share a common Lower Highs trend-line. Until that broke, the price remained under heavy selling pressure.
b) The June-July and September fractals ended their bearish pressure and started strong rallies instead only after they broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
c) The June-July and September fractals made a Low and recovered to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) before re-testing that Low. This was the last Low test before the 1D MA50 broke and the rally started. The current fractal already has a rejection on the 0.618 Fib.
d) The September and the current fractals went below their 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected there to make a Low.
e) The September and the current fractals both measured roughly the same drop (-25% and -28% respectively) from the top of their respective Lower Highs trend-line.
f) The June-July and the current fractals appear to be very symmetrical as well. After making an initial bottom, they recovered and turned sideways (blue Rectangle), only to test that bottom again in 34 and 32 days respectively. Assuming that holds, then the bottom is either in (yesterday) or will be priced by tomorrow.
g) The June-July and the current fractals made lows that measured roughly -30% from the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) which is the Bull Cycle's long-term Support level.
h) The June-July and the current fractals have identical 1D MACD formations (blue Rectangle).

Conclusion

If BTC is more like the September fractal, then the bottom is already in and then next break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), should be the confirmation for a rally. If BTC is more like the June - July fractal then we can project that the accumulation will roughly last for a total of 62 days, meaning that there is still another 30 days left of consolidation within the green Triangle. Only a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may put a stop to this kick-start a rally.

Do you think comparing BTCUSD with those 2021 bottom fractals is viable? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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Comment:

Correction: The red trend-line is the 1W MA100.