BTCUSD Bear Problems? Konami Code Time: UUDDLRLRBAS

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and I do not have training sufficient to give financial advice. This is a hobby, but if you enjoy the chart then leave a like and follow. Donations are also appreciated - please message me privately for details

It's all in the charts. Now let's hunt some Bears!

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BTC exciting Depression, hence why you’re seeing more positive sentiment. It will have a nice run in price while in Disbelief. Disbelief will end with a dip at which point Bears will temporarily re-emerge for a short time. Late 2019 looks like a go, but now is when to buy! FYI altcoins are not synchronized. I plan to publish an LTCUSD idea showing where it stands.

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Exiting*

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Looked at SNTBTC instead of LTC... SNT currently looks to be further ahead in its cycle than BTCUSD.

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Some snapshots using TV Baseline view... Similarities are obvious to me so ask if you have any questions.
BTCUSD

LTCUSD

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Regarding above BTC snapshots, the June 2018 low correlates to the dip slightly right of the 2015 marker. The Aug 2015 low correlates to the Oct 2018 dip, which did not surpass the June dip. Hence, BTC should be in a trend/pattern like the one that following the Aug 2015 low.

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If you got anything out of this Idea, good or bad, be sure to press that like button and consider following.

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Remember what happened last time USDT pumped like this...

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Regarding above 6 Nov update about SNT, too many shorts. SNT will either have to largely drop or wait for BTC price spike to eat away those shorts. Regarding BTC, still playing out as anticipated. Should see some nice price action this week.

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TUSD/USDT continues to pump, BTC is pumping... Whether or not I'm correct about the uptrend these signal that now is NOT the time for leaving a Short to linger. If you're going to Short then plan solid Sell, Buy, and Stop Loss prices and stick to them. If you want to risk a Short at an expected BTC peak then first considering waiting for the Tether pump to stop, dip, or slow down. As of this update, TUSD has reached $1.035 (Binance) and USDT $1.0027334 (calculated by TV, Poloniex). The 15 Oct BTC pump that was blamed on Tether opened and peaked, respectively, on Binance at $1.0434 and $1.24 and as calculated by TV on Poloniex at $.99983331 and $1.01826083.

IMHO the capital now pumping Tether comes from the same source that pumped it on 15 Oct: US Index Funds. The Indices continually dropped several days prior to 15 Oct. Similarly, the Indices have thus far dropped a few consequentive days, and I expect for them to continue downwards for a while longer (e.g., until SPX reaches $2475 - $2266. See my SPX idea linked below).

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Click chart for details and be sure to press play to see full chart.

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My initial Bear analysis... perhaps still in play?

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Price might break 5800... Only trade if you plan to actively monitor price, and be aware of transaction charges so you don’t lose money while trying to make it.

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Above Bear chart might be right... Potentially, the below count is in the making:

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If you look at SNTBTC on 30m or 1H TF it appears I was correct about SNT being further ahead than BTC in its cycle - assuming they'll following similar cycles. Therefore, if SNTBTC is any indication of what's to come with BTC then it's worth keeping track of SNT... Looks like SNT has risen from Despair (Anger) and is now going through Depression. Alternatively, it's possible that SNT already began its trek towards Hope/Disbelief or that another deep drop is simply impending.

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Bad news: BTC/ETH look Bearish for 2018 through to potentially March-May 2019. Possible BTC TPs: $5200, $5000, and $4800 and SL of $4300 at which point $3300 range becomes possible.

Good news: You can still profit by exchanging BTC/ETH for the right altcoin, which will rally through to at least January 2019. You’ll then exchange back to BTC/ETH for more than you began with. Not every altcoin is viable.

The trade strategy: Look at BTC/ETH altcoin pairings and you’ll see some synchronized w/ BTC/ETH and some not. Similarly to the 2017/2018 BTC/ETH ATHs ($USD), numerous altcoins had previously peaked per their BTC/ETH rate. I suspect that is happening now. Exchange BTC/ETH for a valid altcoin now, ride their continued rally until late December/January, then exchange back to BTC/ETH at an opportune time prior to BTC/ETH’s next rally.

Further insight: I’ve come across several appealing altcoins, e.g., EOS, LTC, and XLM. I’ve exchanged for LTC and XLM and am still considering EOS. LTC has substantially retraced, looks set to begin a new LTCBTC rally, and LTCETH looks further along. The XLMBTC weekly TF reveals a very attractive pattern, what appears to be an ascending triangle, and XLMETH is nicely trending upwards with discernable motive waves. I know Charlie Lee said $20 LTC, whether he’s right or not he didn’t say anything about LTC’s BTC/ETH exchange rate.

Furthermore, the USD/USDT value of alts will go down as BTC goes down. If BTC continues down it’s fair to assume traders will temporarily opt to leave the market or buy an alt. The choice is yours. Thoughts and comments are welcomed.

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Meant to leave an alternative hypothesis.

Alternatively: the current BTC drop is a ruse by major US Index fund investors so they can buy in at lower while indices continue downwards. The implication if true is that BTC could suddenly spike in price as millions come pouring in.

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Final conjecture point: ETH has retraced far more than BTC. So it’s possible ETH could rally separate from BTC. Uncertain how this would affect ETH’s $USD value. This implies BTC must further retrace before another rally, which might be a false assumption. Perhaps BTC did not retrace as much bc it maintained a higher demand.

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For all my fans/followers, here's an new idea worth checking out:

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Hopefully you had exchanged for a profitable altcoin. Ultimately I went in on XVG, which is turning out nicely. I'm focusing on XVGETH because my plan is to then ride the ETHBTC wave prior to cashing out.