TheTrex
Short

Bitcoin - The Bearish Continuation Scenario

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Info:

After bitcoin topped off at 5000 it made a quick deep dive to 3000 (even going below slightly) this all happened in approximately 13 days. The main reason for this is that bitcoin has completed three waves up and was ready for a potential correction but the china news about banning exchanges let it plunge at rapid speed. The bearish news of china is still acting, bulls are fighting hard against it but this price correction cuts pretty deep in future uptrend and complete recovery. My feeling says this is the bulltrap (4080-4150USD) and there will be one more wave of sellers wanting to get out. This will form a major ABC and then we consolidate in the lower part ranging from 3000 to 3600 to clear up completely what the future politcal (China volume migration) and technical (november harfork SegWit2x) direction is.

4080 is also the top of the trend channel and it's advised to close a long at this point because pullback is likely. Also this could turn in a big Head and Shoulders pattern which is indicated in the chart.

The bull versus bear fight will be though, good luck and happy trading!

-TheTrex
Comment: 2H Chart close-up
Trade active: Target zone of 4080-4100 Reached. Shorting active.
Comment: Short closed
Comment: Waiting for a clear break upward or downward. We are still in the red triangle and I expect price to consolidate slowly upwards. Eventually when range gets narrow, if break down short otherwise potential long is possible.
Comment: Currently we are waiting for this structure to make a clear move. Hourly MACD says down and so does wave counting.
Comment: So this is somewhat experimental, the triangle ends at 4200 then we have fibs spirals giving us two more points of breakdown, 3978 and 4117.
Comment: What a great swing all the way from 4150! I should try to seek support again where it broke, but the general downtrend should slowly go down. Still some cloud support present.
Comment: Remember that good traders short or long the bottom or top. Shorting while a trend is already going lower or had several waves is risky but can sometimes work out well. Plan your entries and exits in advance!
Comment: Retest of Neckline at 4000
Comment: Update! Based on 1H MACD we can still expect a third wave up to 4200! Depending how strong the bulls are. We also got Ichimoku Cloud support so could be a turning point.
Comment: After we complete this trend I will post the final picture of how the fib spiral progressed so you guys can see it's impact.
Comment: Bulls are pushing us up to 4100-4200 and tomorrow evening I expect the dump.
Comment: The big short could have began!
Comment: Target point for now 3500 USD
Comment:
Comment: Bitcoin could have one more attempt to 4200. The breakout of the wedge was not strong enough and widened the shape. The target from the fib spiral screenshot still holds. This would finally give us three clear waves and give us better confirmation to short while the raising wedge becomes narrow. Understand that no prediction follow 100% it's path and that we should be dynamic as traders.
Comment: Within 10 hours we should see a clear move upwards to 4200 or downward to 3800 (retesting bottom).
Trade active: Some serious dump now
Comment: Target point on Fibs are 3671 and 3586 USD
Comment: Up we go again bounce time.
Comment: 3600 Incomming
Comment: We bounced at 3671 I think we go up or consolidate at this point.
Comment: Almost 230$ down move. Should retrace some before more down.
Comment: If we dont make lower lows, this should be the bottom and we should be heading up again in 15min
Comment: I'm not sure to continue updates on this chart or make a new one for smaller timeframe. Leave in the comments if you would like to get updates on this chart (if it's orderly) or create a new one?
Comment:
Comment: 3730-3740 Target Point (TP)
Comment: I will make a new one then :)
Comment: Target point cancelled..
Order cancelled: This chart has become invalid. My new chart still provides us with some key levels, even outside the broken downtrend.

Comments

@TheTrex that's so pretty that I don't even care if it's accurate.
+6 Reply
This could end up being quite the head fake and bull-trap. I can see it now: bulls think this is impulse wave 1 of 5 leading up well passed $5k. The correction that's coming they expect but they'll think it's corrective wave 2 of 5, as those can be pretty deep. Whereas in reality, it will probably be subwave 1 of the corrective C subwave taking us to the low $3k's. Then they will expect wave 3 of 5, the big "money" wave which they think will take us passed $5k. But in reality, this will probably be subwave 2 of the corrective C subwave. And this is where the huge head fake will happen. It will climb up to the mid-high $3ks, then suddenly reverse and begin the large downward 3 subwave of the C subwave down to new lows in the mid $2k's. WTF?
+6 Reply
SNOW_CITY dalmazio
@dalmazio, I agree. Final low end consolidation 2450-2600
+1 Reply
Belcara dalmazio
@dalmazio, very interesting !
+1 Reply
Wow love the charts brother!
+5 Reply
TheTrex goldbug1
@goldbug1, Thanks Goldbug!
+1 Reply
goldbug1 TheTrex
@TheTrex, I wish mine looked that good, mine look like my desk ;)
+1 Reply
I agree with this. Environment is still too uncertain and riddled with confusion for this to be a genuine start to a new bull trend. Plus it was too short, 13 days as you say, whereas previous major correction in June-July was a full month. But if this chart is accurate, then that C wave could easily extend down to $2k! This is just too risky and volatile for me. I'm out on the sidelines until things stabilize at end of Sept.
+5 Reply
TheTrex dalmazio
@dalmazio, I will be building a short position around +4K
+2 Reply
dalmazio TheTrex
@TheTrex, is $3150 your closing target?
Reply
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