Neely-Elliott Wave is suggesting that BTCUSD is in wave-E of a contracting triangle with reverse alternation or wave-B of a new advance, and will remain in a neutral environment for the next 6 weeks. The EW time target aligns perfectly with the potential October 18th approval of the VanEck BTC . This in particular has a very high chance of approval because of one big reason - precedent. VanEck has brought to market many original complex financial exchange traded products - they're the good ol' boys.
On a more fundamental basis, the VanEck is the first one that is based on an OTC exchange index, rather than a retail exchange index. There is a lot of precedent for regulated OTC indexes, whereas there is absolutely no precedent for a retail crypto exchange index, which is the main reason why every previous has been rejected. The SEC can't "prevent manipulation" (ie, manipulate the market themselves) on retail crypto exchanges, they can however do so on regulated OTC exchanges that compose the VanEck index. There is also precedent for ETFs composed of significantly more volatile assets than BTC . I think that by switching to an OTC index instead of a retail index, VanEck will have successfully courted the SEC into allowing this to pass. However, until it's official the market will remain neutral. Also after the BTC is approved, it will set a precedent and we will soon see ETFs for every other major crypto being released on the retail market.
Neely River Theory suggests that the best way to play this market environment is to buy bull call option spreads, long DEC19 10000 calls and short DEC19 11000 calls. This vertical spread strategy allows for safer profits to be generated while the market remains range bound with a slight upward bias. Roll into new calls if trade value goes up 60% or price goes above 12000, and exit if value goes down 20-30%. (Warning: Experimental)
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