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BITCOIN The end of the Bull Cycle? What should be avoided.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC made a new Low and the pattern that has emerged on the 1D time-frame is a Channel Down. The price is on Lower Highs and Lower Lows since April 14, effectively completing 1 full month of bearish activity. Whether that correction continues or the long-term bullish trend is resumed, that remains to be seen, but so far Bitcoin has completed a -35% correction from the April 14 $65000 High (and All Time High). However, in order to avoid a new Bear Cycle all together , there are certain technical developments that need to be avoided. Let's see those in more detail below.

** Not the first Channel Down during this Bull Cycle **
First of all let's start but looking at similar bearish patterns that BTC has formed. You will find that this is not the first Channel Down formed during, not just the Parabolic Rise but also the Bull Cycle (after the December 2018 $3200 Bottom) all together .


The chart right above shows the most recent Channel Down (or Falling Wedge as some may put it) last January. Despite the Lower Low, the RSI stayed supported, while the LMACD made a slight lower low and started recovering. Fairly similar to the current price action.


However during July-August-September 2019, a similar Channel Down that was formed after the euphoric April-May-June 2019 (due to Facebook's LIBRA project) mini parabolic rise, eventually broke the uptrend and put BTC on Lower Lows for 9 months straight (ok we need to mention here that towards its end it was fueled by the COVID outbreak).

That Channel Down formed a MA50-MA100 (blue and green trend-lines respectively) Death Cross on the 1D time-frame that triggered a new Lower Low which eventually broke the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). At the moment we are not too far from this Death Cross, while the 1D MA200 is just around the cornet at $39550.


It is important to mention here that during the 2017 Parabolic Rise (by that I mean the activity after the (at the time) All Time High broke), never touched the 1D MA200, until after the Bear Cycle 0f 2018 has started. We didn't even have a 1D MA50/ MA100 Death Cross.


During the 2013 Parabolic Rise though, the picture is different. Before the new Bull Cycle peak, BTCUSD after the April 2018 intermediate top, turned sideways on a very volatile 6-7 month activity during which the 1D MA200 was hit 2 times. One in early July (2013) when it broke marginally but got recovered in 2 days and one in early October (2013) when it broke just by a candle wick and recovered instantly.


** The importance of the 0.786 Fibonacci level **
Can we be inside a 2013 phase? That remains to be seen. The current Channel Down may be close to the 1D MA200, but if BTC investors want the price to recover, then there is a certain level to start with and break: the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

As you see on the main chart, on May 08, the price rebound failed to break above the 0.786 Fib, made the 2nd Lower High of the Channel Down, and brought us to where we are today (a Lower Low). Assuming today was the Lower Low, then the 0.786 Fib is currently at $55300 (roughly). If that breaks, then it will be a first step towards recovering the ATH . If not, then I've already analyzed the 1D MA200 scenarios. Sidenote: the CCI appears to be on a Double Bottom .


So that do you think? Is a 1D MA200 test imminent and if yes, will that signal the end of the current Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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Comment: Because TradingView failed to display the snapshots, I am posting them now as urls (in the way I intended in the analysis), so that you have a good picture what I am talking about. Just copy-paste the addresses on your browser:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/B...

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/F...

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/f...

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/Q...
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Comments

i agree. here is my current view. maybe helpful ... :-)

+18 Reply
peterbhc BTCINVESTING
@BTCINVESTING, Very nice callout. I like the correlation between those setups πŸ‘Š
+4 Reply
@peterbhc, hey
+3 Reply
@peterbhc, thx. :-)
Reply
Bitpal488 peterbhc
@peterbhc, Hello peterbhc
+1 Reply
B-17 BTCINVESTING
@BTCINVESTING, pretty much. ESG/ Climate change question will get answered but may take time to really work its way through markets/investor behavior. Great idea, thanks for sharing!
+2 Reply
@B-17, thx for your comment. :-)
Reply
Thankyou somuch wish we make big funds
Reply
ietavakoli BTCINVESTING
@BTCINVESTING, Very nice
Reply
BTCINVESTING ietavakoli
Reply
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