When we compare the from a month ago and this one, we can see they look a like. With that one, after we failed to reach the 4500/4600, i said that would most prob fail for several reasons (if you want to know what those reasons were, look up my history).
This , there are some big differences:
1) Alts look completely different than with the IH&S from November. Most are much higher than in Nov and like XRP' for example, it had a big while BTC'
was making the IH&S. So in general, Alts are much stronger and sentiment is more as well.
2) Back then, we made a flash crash from the 6K to the 3500, so the market was of course much more shaky back then, than it is now. This time we have tested
the 3K levels much more.
3) The purple zone, is much stronger this time than the previous one.
4) It looks like we are in the blue circle not in the more green circle.
5) from the blue circle now looks higher than it was back then. But the difference is very small though.
6) That blue circle at yesterday's high. Could mean nothing, could be a sign of the markets intention to break up.
For now, it's important that Bitcoin' holds the 4000/3950 level, so alts don't loose ground and bulls don't get scared. But knowing how this market works (usually), there is a big chance we might see a shake out to 3800/3850 and bounce back up again. This is likely, because is still low which makes it very easy to force such a move. So day trading this is not easy, almost gambling. Moments like these, you need to have your position already and believe in your long or short positions. I was short, my stop would be around 4200 and if i was long my stop would be around 3800. Anything in between is noise, one shake out after the other.
The black upwards is also important to watch, of course taking wicks into account, that should not break.
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But if the bulls can hold this small trend line, things can certainly work out.
We all know manipulation happens in all the markets, but there it's only a few moments. With Bitcoin it's 80% of the time it seems. I had doubts yesterday about the move up, because volume was not good and bitcoin was not able to push up. But the last 6/12 hours or so, before the drop, many alts were moving up, some even really making breakouts. All during a sideways Bitcoin. This has almost been THE best ingredient in crypto, to see alts move up while Bitcoin is stable.
But we saw the same thing 3 weeks ago, when we had that big dump coming out of nowhere. Back than i knew the chances were much bigger, that it was too early to move up. This time there were much more factors in favor to move up. Only problem was, as i mentioned in the previous update, the low volume for Bitcoin and ETH that was moving very strange as well.
Seeing the drop of ETH, it has become clear what the whole idea was of that educational post i did a week ago. I am 90% sure they squeezed it up that day to sell longs and fill up shorts at those highs. I will try to explain it in more detail soon.
One thing is obvious of course, since we moved above the 3950 for almost 4 days, obviously stop levels piled up below the 3950. They did what these Bart people do with the smaller moves. Each time price drops, pushing it up just as fast, to create a fake (in hindsight) support. Getting more people in at those levels. Now the last hour or 2 before i called it a day, i could see the selling pressure was high, but i kept seeing buy orders getting in as well, so it looked normal.
Now looking back at the time, the dump started around 7.30 CET. So that is before Europe wakes up and the US is a sleep. It sucks i was not able to see it, but i think it was not even more than 20/40 mil leveraged money on Bitmex that pushed the price down. Because all the stops did the rest.
Anyway, for now, we had a high volume dump of 300 points almost. Chances are very high to see at least another drop. Just like we had a few weeks ago (yellow circle). So far we have had no bounce at all, suggesting there are no bulls in sight yet. OI has only dropped 10 mil since i saw it yesterday, but i still need to check how it went since the drop, trying to find a clue there.
There are several alts who are at a big support zone now, like ADA and LTC. So there is a chance for a turn around, but i think those chances are very small for now. Unless this becomes another Bart move, we need to see some bounces up and down before we can think we will move up. We need to see a support getting created first.
That green zone on the right is an important level. A drop below that level will probably not be good. I don't the 3600 will hold again, will probably retest 3450/400 if the 3650ish breaks. But it's an assumption for now.
Now the longer we go sideways, the bears will stay in favor, but the odds of the bulls will increase slowly.
On the left i have shown a similar situation. But, back then we had that big Tether manipulation which caused that big squeeze up. In hindsight it's clear, that some very clever people manipulated Tether to build op some big short position at the highs. No doubt in my mind that it was done on purpose. What else would be the reason that Tether is stable around $1.0x again.
The 3600/3550 support, same as a few weeks ago, is still holding. But we should not forget, we had a big punch in the faces of the bulls yesterday, they still need to recover. Even if we go up from here, we will most likely test the low once again. Best case i think, we move up to 3700/3800 and back down to 3550/3600 to form a double bottom. Just going up from here to the 4K, is very unlikely, maybe like 10% chance.
This possible fractal i showed the other day, might be in play here. That would mean Bitcoin has to make a Bart move up from these levels. It would suggest another half day of sideways action.
I am not sure what the market will do on the mid-term. That bigger picture play i had from the 3200 lows, is almost completely off the table. There is another scenario, which would mean this drop is just a much bigger B correction down than i thought it would be. That would mean the 3200/3400 zone has to hold coming week.
Reason why i say this, is because the volume of ETH on Mex, has increased a lot the past months. It's maybe around 20% of what BTC is on Mex. So we are talking about 100/250 USD mil a day. I just noticed the difference between the mark price and btc price. To bad i did not look any sooner. I will try to research this a bit coming day or 2 and make a post about this. Think of it as the Okex trick some people did at 8.5K high of btc or what we saw at the 7.4K high, where it was quite obvious that Bitmex ruled back then.
So we can probably assume, that as long as the mark price does not get close to the Bitmex price again, of the ETH/BTC pair, these people are probably still short. I assume this, because these people probably have very big positions. So either they already closed it with the last drop (through liquidations) or they are still planning to make another big drop.
I am stil not sure about all this, have to look in to it a bit more, but from the first look, it does not look like it's a coincidence.