Crypto-Swing

Wyckoff - with a Death Cross

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A quick update on where Bitcoin is in relation to the Wyckoff method now that it has tested the "creek" (resistance) at $40k and is seeking its low point to turn, "spring" forward, and ultimately jump across it.
Comment: Some similarities with the end of June, 2013 (right) with the current period (left):
- Death Cross
- MACD crossing bearish
- Declining RSI
Comment: Sorry, just noticed that its the 100MA being crossed in the 2013 chart. Still, a strong psychological factor.
Comment: Here's a look at the technical structures in the 4hrs chart. A clear and complete Head & Shoulders pattern projecting $27k, and a Fibonacci channel with corresponding lines of support.
Comment: Bitcoin has broken to the downside of $30k, establishing a new low for this multi-month correction, with some technical formations still projecting that there is further to fall.
The two successive inside bars certainly setup the move to break the $30k barrier, but will we see carry through now to fulfill the Head & Shoulders projection? Or is that the bottom and its all blue sky from here?
Comment: Here we are, breaking the H&S neckline on a second test, with the RSI bouncing off support in the 4-hr chart.
Looks promising with rising volume and the MACD is threatening to cross bullish in the Daily chart. However, I can not shake the feeling that this is a false narrative.
Comment: There have been a few requests for an update to this chart for July. It is not really feasible to do at this time for a few reasons, but mainly because we appear to be in a re-distribution phase. If you notice the divergence from the classic Wyckoff pattern from June 28, you will see some strong similarities to the prior distribution phase, but at a smaller scale. It even "feels" like the period when Bitcoin was range bound between $50k and $65k. That was a demoralising period when an inability to break to a new high sowed the seeds of doubt and left everyone to throw in the towel when we finally broke below $50k.

Now, $32.7k is the new $50k, and a break below that will likely see another round of capitulation, but still on a smaller scale. This new anticipated low, will then become the real "Spring" that launches BTC back to the Creek at $41k and then across it and on to new highs.

If you have read through this, congratulations, there are not many these days that have the patience to read.

For everyone else, I will publish an updated version once we get below $32.7k.

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