Bitcoin - A Wyckoff Cycle Study (Update 2)

Where are we in the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase? I believe we have moved into Phase C and are running down to the “Spring”. But that is really just a guess, but considering the lackluster follow through on the El Salvador news, I feel another downside event is required to inspire strong buying to break the downward momentum and exit the trading range.

In support of this thesis, though, is a bearish Inside Bar formation in the daily chart at a pivot high, that projects lower prices in the daily timeframe.

The RSI has been rejected at a resistance line twice, so I expect a deeper pull back to build more momentum to push through that. The MACD also looks to have exhausted its bullish condition and may be due for a bearish cross.

Comment:

There are more than a few people wondering whether rally to $40k means we are starting towards higher highs. The funny thing about the Wyckoff method is that it is a manipulation, so it is only the manipulators that really know, particularly when the chart is ambiguous. However, I feel this most likely is a re-distribution, as per this chart:

A strong possibility of another drop in my opinion. Why not take the opportunity to compound gains even further, and demoralise the retail investors even more? If you were an unscrupulous manipulator who loaded up in the low $30k zone, would you not dump it all at $40k and buy it all back even lower before the rally? Is that not the mindset of the "Composite Man".