DanV
Short

Bitcoin-BitStamp - Short Term Bearish Cycle to Resume

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
8918 20 44
Since my last 2 charts we have continued progressing in the bearish cycle and do not fee that we have yet reached the low. Check both of those charts linked below for larger picture.

I must admit that expected triangle which was the least bearish appear to have failed as I explained in the Youtube video ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8 ) due to the lower support line of the which was very flat and hence not the ideal formation for triangle.

However, despite the unclear wave there are other features which I notice are very clear and could help formulate possible out come though cannot be guaranteed.

I briefly outline these regarding the price pattern or formation:

1. Price formation between vertical lines A - B (Mother) is very similar to C - D (Baby) but is 61.8% of the of the price difference of the Mother.

2. Likewise Price action between B - C id similar in formation to D - E though the size is again reducing. So to keep it in the family I am calling this another Mother and Baby which should culminate around 500 area if the measure move of the last low is 1st leg equal to 2nd leg up as shown in 15 min chart below. If so we could then be in fianl zigzag of this cycle to the downside could commence.

3. Assumption - Finally as there has been lot of very close pattern symmetry, I am assuming that we will have the last zizgzag similar in shape and if not at least in ration similarly. So Last tow zigzags to the downside referred to above in (1) was Mother & Baby hence the to th             downside could be infant ie similar but smaller still. Baby travelled 61.8% of the Mother. Therefore, the infant could be 61.8% of the price range of Baby. That puts the low in the proximity of 236.

4. similarly from the Nov 2013 High you will note that we have 1st cycle down (W) show in Green line which projects from (X) Jan 2014 High and that measured move give us the target of 212.

However, if this low is achieved we should see very profitable move to the upside but would warn that it will not the the new impulsive cycle to the upside. which is shown in outline on the chart but will go into detail in future update.

Hope this helps many of you who have been asking latest update and other who have an interest in this instrument.
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
15 Min close up look to show possible top around 500 area before the last zizgzag to the downside for this cycle referred to above commences
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I want you to know that there are those in the community that DO appreciate you for taking the time to share your technical knowledge on this difficult stuff! Thank you!
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Yes much appreciated! Awesome work every time. Big help for me since I am still learning. Tyvm.
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W
O
W.
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Just wanted to add to the thanks. I've learnt so much from your charts (and your videos too). Keep up the good work, it's very much appreciated.
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Hi Dan,

Long term my view is same - we could be forming "big flat" (A)(B)(C). But I am not sure why you are convinced (A) has not finished yet? Is this because move upwards from recent low had too small legs upwards?

So far we have reached minimal retracement target from ending diagonal and I am expecting correction which should ideally conclude in region 450-460 if we are to resume move upwards. On the other hand breach below 420 will signal that bear market is on the way and we are likely going below 300.
https://www.tradingview.com/e/tmYOLjww/

Thanks for sharing with us!



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Excellent analysis. Great work Dan!
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Thank you. I am also reviewing the price action from today and beginning to see some clearer outcome potentially, will update it
soon.
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Hi Dan

We have reached the $513 zone and it looks like
the buyers are coming back are you still bearish?

Thanks,

Amit
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We might have had larger wave which looks like triple zizgag on BitStamp. So we could expect partial retracement and then another leg higher but ultimately we will form top little higher up and meat with major long term declining trendline from ATH which will retest the last low before possible change of trend on larger time frame.
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Hi Dan, as always very interesting. Is your last comment the update you mentioned? It will be very helpful to see your updates on the chart - if it changes anything in terms of predicted moves.
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It didn't go down
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StefMaj kakola
No, how about now?
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Here is an update as we continue to aim for 300 zone, but the upside retracement not quite finished. So here is the 4 Hourly Chart and close up look with 30 min chart
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Purely out of interest study Gold chart, This one is on weekly but comparison with Bitcoin on Daily looks so similar to me
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AND it does not have to be exact.
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I'm new to BTC trading and I'm doing my best to keep up with the news etc. However there is so much confusion and manipulation at the moment, so it is not really useful. I'm looking back at the trend over the past months find that to be best clue to where BTC is headed. There is a quote by Dennis Gartman that says "Only trade what you know". I think that applies very well to the current situation (my situation at least :-). Your excellent analysis has also helped me a lot. Thank very much!
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You are welcomed. Thankyou for your appreciation.
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So, what happened with your forecast? Price gone absolutely not where you've told.
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Asterix retroo
Dan's April14th analyse (comment one) seem to materialize very well, it was an update to his main chart, another possibility he considered
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Bitcoin Asterix
I agree Asterix. Danv has layed out some different scenarios some gain popularity and some do not. The ones that are popular seem overly scrutinized through no fault of the author. Dan's analysis and predictive abilities are strong. Strong Kung Fu imo. Happy trading! :)
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