DanV
Short

BTCUSD - Potential In Final Swing of Bearish Cycle

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I posted this on Ron's chart at and from the resulting comments I felt I had to publish this to avoid disappointing any interested ones.

As you will note this chart is an update of my previous charts not a revision. The overall EW pattern and likely downside target for now still remains at 320-300 (preferred).

However, the Time Symmetry pointing to 10th May in last chart actually coincided to intermediate lower high rather than the expected low. So I revisited the Time Symmetry and in this chart only include minimum details for the chart and the main features to stand out.

Now the possible low could be expected later May 2014 which is similar to my other weekly chart which many of you have seen many times over last few months. Whether we find the time symmetry holds or not, the price is more important to me in this context.

You cannot imagine what this will do for me in achieving the said target and on time would be awesome.

It is hoped that supporters will have had the taste of analysis over the full cycle. In particular to my "Critiques" it will show that there was some method in my madness and will concede the fact that they did not dislodge me from following my analysis.

So do consider this chart in conjunction with all other related charts as we have been following the development of this bearish cycle since Jan 2014 top.

Let me know what you think. But please don't bother if you just want to vent your frustration. Thanks.
http://www.danv-charting.com
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Hello DanV, breaking the upper limit of your descending wedge? Does this cause you to reconsider or would you consider this still on track? Thanks a lot, John
Reply
DanV MOD johnrfraser
Agreed.On Arithmetic scale it seems like it but not on Log scale. However, the most important thing to note is that with price moving just sideways might breach the declining trend line but real break should have strong momentum with volume. Both are apparently lacking right now. This might appear to many as bullish break and then price could collapse which with hind sight will look like false break. So for now nothing has change the overall bearish trend in my view
Reply
Thanks a lot for replying. I have certainly seen how very weak volumes have been able to break barriers recently, particularly at weekends.
That said I am very interested in market depth charts...I see a counter intuitive pattern where (as per currently) price will tend towards the larger volume on the chart...like a gravity effect. Looking at it now, the buy side is massive compared to the sell, which from my observation and study says price is about to fall, big time. Only twice have I seen a lower sell volume on the chart while price went up, this was over the last week and a moment a couple of months ago...all other times it seems to hold true. No one talks about this??
Also, glad you mentioned Log scale. I'd actually just asked ronfkingswanson what the significance is...his trend line just doesnt work if not in Log scale...so in normal scale we've departed from his wedge by a fair way now? I jokingly siad that to me, Log scale seems to be a nice way to get trend lines to carry on fitting our desired picture long after they've been breached! How does it work? Thanks again
Reply
Thanks so much DanV. I agree. I don't see it going as low as some people are saying, because of some very positive news for once.
The facebook Winklevoss twins, BTC, and NASDAQ. Check it out.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dealbook/2014/05/08/winklevoss-twins-to-list-bitcoin-fund-on-nasdaq/
Here's an older video clip with them in it discussing the future of BTC.
http://www.totalwebcasting.com/view/?id=nysdfs
IMO this should wake up a lot of people that are still too 'skiddish' to invest in BTC. Classic Schopenhauer psychological effect being played out with 'skiddish' investors.
"First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. I think we are currently in between stage 2 and 3. Interesting times!
Cheer's

Reply
Hi Dan. Many thanks for publishing your chart. Very useful. Best wishes, Nick
Reply
DanV MOD nick.stoneman.5
YW. Thank you for your appreciation.
+1 Reply
So much consensus around a move to 320 on the interweb. This is a strong indicator for me that there's no way that's going to happen.
+2 Reply
ostaphedge steve.goeddeke
130$-200$ wil be bottom
Reply
The likelihood that you are correct is very slim in my opinion. Anything is possible, but some catastrophic exogenous event would be needed to precipitate such a move (bigger than a China ban).

Good luck if you are holding out, I've have seen this exact same story play out repeatedly in bitcoin for the past two years...
Reply
ostaphedge AKWAnalytics
It was not apocaliptic when bitcoin fell from 30$ to 2$ (15 times). If we are in same situation, than 1200 : 15 = 80.
Reply
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