LupaCapital

BTC USD - Patience is a virtue

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Hello Traders and Analysts,

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.

Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour


Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading;

Monthly Imbalances
Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point.

See what price could do;
Price has a two option zone for Bitcoin - where price has a low of $5000 to 9k zone. This is a very large sell off but the Monthly imbalance before the buying imbalances created the heavy bullish structure. This also coincides with the -0.27% Fibonacci zone.
The imbalance has to be filled - so where $179XX zone offers this closing out where the previous historical wick has yet to be tapped out, creating a cancelled out measure.
This will then offer the high probability for price to create a buying opportunity as the reactive level is now becoming realised.

Weekly Imbalances
On the weekly - price has now created a mid zone where the low of $28,200 zone, price has tested this but created upon the monthly - an opportunity of this low saw multiple retests - this offers a high opportunity for price to assess the direction. Price has now created multiple indecisions and a 50% to $41,300 offering a $13000 est range.
The upper zone between $64,7XX to $56,XXX has strong weekly selling. Reviewing the candlesticks shows a clear sell opportunity, but awaiting confirmations would be to see lower lows created and the retest of the candle. See below*

*Here is the weekly Fibonacci which allowed price to fall to the current zone price is now experiencing.

The next move?
Here is the closing of the imbalance which needs to net zero - before the next move can be confirmed.
Price which reacts with the next Eclipse or -0.27 will offer a further buy or sell.

Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question.

BTC USD
Bitcoin is still the overall leader within the movement of the Cryptocurrency world, and there is a large area of movement for price to close lower and lower into the territory where price will look to reverse at two options;
1. $18,000
2. Between the monthly imbalance zone at $5,500

The weekly has shown weekly progressively lower lows - which is, still showing opportunities to add longs. The reason for these ZOI or Zones of interest, are where price has created "breather" positions on the weekly.

See below for the analysis to show that imbalances repeat themselves.
The weekly has applications for lower lows, with a large amount of room to the imbalance to the downside. This is a fresh structural cycle - where price has and will move to this level.

Bearish Fibonacci Extension
Applying the Inverse Fibonacci to the downtrend to provide clarity of the target.

BTC VS ETH USD
As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist.
Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to

See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link.
Key
Bitcoin - BTC - Blue
Ethereum - ETH - Purple
Link - LNK - White

See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for.

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