LupaCapital

GBP JPY - short due to higher timeframes confirming sells

Short
WHSELFINVEST:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
Hello Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish , where the main trades are placed at 154.5X and 156X respectively and now 152. 05 .

Previous analysis:
Private Analysis gave key criteria for the short.

May 4th - Weekly chart


The main plan here is execute upon the rejection of 0.382% Fibonacci as the daily chart shows a lower highs being created as well as within the weekly imbalance - equal lows, which is suggested a high probability with chart patterns this can now break?
This will be a reactive trade, so trade according to your plan with defined risk management.

The higher timeframe suggests a volatile re-bound swing after every selling day. So take this into account.

Here is the current Weekly Scenario
This takes into account the movements where buyers took control of the correctional
See further for the before -0.618% Reversion price fractal found in the daily Imbalance.


Bearish scenario
Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141.
This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020.
Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity.
With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy.

Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely.
Again this is using probabilities, to understand why this area is of interest, refer to the upload chart provided.

Be aware any reactive level offers volatility and an opportunity to add buy orders, sell orders to generate hedged net positions.

Daily Chart;
Here is the wedge pattern in which in combination with the trendline remaining intact,
The Fibonacci probability of the reactive zones have been consistent in shorting aspects
The daily chart shows the lower highs and equal lows forming
The 152.0 - 152.3 zone was perfect to short - where the 8 hour chart shows my thought process.

8Hour Chart
Successful Retest of the zone -

Four Hour chart today
Clear move up to 152.00 - 152.3 as the traffic shows no strong move against the selling yet. Please await the next zone for making an opportunity.

Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD
The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase.
It looks like the Sterling pairs are correcting and correlating, meanwhile XAU is whipsawing upon the 1775-1800 mark.

The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances.

To see the inverse correlation (not causation) of two GBP pairs, both affected by the reactive levels taking place at the same time.
Please note* trading opposite correlated pairs upon a imbalance level is highly not advised due to 100% loss taking trades in opposite directions when price reverts against you.
The strategy should be implemented upon confirms.

Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.

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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.

Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Trade closed manually: Will look to re-enter, today turned bullish and retesting structure