This_Guhy
Short

BTCUSD Price drop probably not a long "squeeze"

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
There have been a lot of calls that this is a suckers rally and I think we are seeing the fallout right before our eyes. The burn off will take us to a new low and we might see that full capitulation that the bears have been predicting.

  • The Hull MACD is a great way to get a feel for what is going on but it does have its idiosyncrasies. But right now the analysis is straight forward, it seems a convergence/bear cross on the hull MACD will kill the bull cross we just had and we will continue to leg it down.
  • The daily RSI is rounding off and pointing down
  • The chart pattern was a very bearish rising wedge
  • Volume action was poor
  • The RSI and MACD Don't have "true" bullish divergence , they are just drifting to zero.

I looked at the Bitfinex longs on a linked post and sorted out my by own reckoning the varies types of drops. I think this should be a "red" drop , one that people can see coming from a crypto mile away and we will see most traders taking their positions off the books rather than getting liquidated. The bears on bitfinex still seem skittish as we see that the shorts have been declining during this opportunity, perhaps being too burned by the surge we saw within the last week. I certainly think in the next day or two we will see the bears come out. Remember to disregard the percentages in the chart below for reasons
I mentioned in my linked idea.

Comment: We are approaching a moment of truth for this post and, and quite frankly, my shorts. You can see two pairs of arrows on the chart below, the blue arrows are historical and the red arrows are what I am looking at to forcaste. The main thing I am looking at the the price action (and RSI/MACD) diverging from the Hull MACD signal line. This has been a powerful indicator for me in the past predicting a trend reversal. There is generally one last oscillation of the Hull MACD and then a significant dump (in the case of bearish divergence). I am use to a bit of a pump or "needle pop" we don't see that so far on BTCUSD *

We currently see on the 8h chart the (hopefully) last oscillation of the Hull signal line which should get us quite the drop If you look at the the normal MACD around the red and blue arrows I suspect we will see much the same thing, with the MACD riding/hugging the signal line before the drop. In general I don't have price target to get out but I will be looking for a bullish cross on the 4h MACD and then expecting some sideways action. On some other charts I have some support lines and I would expect the 4h MACD cross to coincide near those support lines.


*We see the needle pop on ETHUSD with that surge up to 496 which was just enough to stop out my ETHUSD position by $1.50, which was annoying. I re-opened my position but 2/3rds the original size, just in in case I am wrong. Disclaimer for my bias, getting stopped out on ETHUSD ignited all sorts of hate and discontent in my heart so take this (not really financial) advice with that caveat in mind.

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