I would like to share my thoughts about the main/most important cryptocurrency asset from my point of view, Bitcoin .
This year has been pretty after a very nice 2017 for entire market. Thats not inusual, people who bought on the lows sold on the highs taking nice profits. This situation continue with massive sellout turning the trend and sentiment negative and ........yeah, im not telling you anything new but this drop was anticipated sucesfully in our trading group on early January.
On the last months each time that Bitcoin has tried to break up it has been rejected by ( I drawed two ). This pattern formed is clearly and if we look into different technical indicators they looks negative on main important timeframe (Weekly chart)
- SAR remains negative ( Its placed around 8k usd)
- reject price action which is negative
- is low which makes hard to pump the price ( Negative )
- MA50 is going down faster but its too far away from prices which suggest more downside which is Negative. Even EMA20 Reject the price ( Negative )
- is far away and remains above of candles ( Negative )
According to these negative indicators and pattern probabilities to broken to the downside is around 70-75% IF you only consider Technical Analisys.
However, Bitcoin is not like other asset/commodities and you know it.
Miners and holding philosophy could makes harder breakdown. I know that vision could make you disagree with me but to understand a reality, we must take into account all the aspects surrounding this. Moreover , Bakkt, Fidelity and Bitcoin could be very good to attract new investors into this market which could be boost the market to the upside
Bitcoin continue sideways but remains on a .
Nobody knows when Bitcoin is going to reverse or even breakdown until something happens ( negative or positive )
If you are looking to TRADE, sometimes is better stay off until path looks much clear avoiding risks.
Some important keys that would suggest reversal moment:
- Close a monthly candle above 7600$ it could be very positive and we could start to consider bottom was formed around 5800$
- Stay Above Daily MA200 / Weekly EMA20+MA50
- Make Higher highs on price action and some indicator like
If finally my triangles are broken to the downside have three important supports at 5800$/4900$ and 4330$.
- If Bitcoin goes down and capitulates dropping the prices to this zones it could be VERY interesant places to make new long INVESTS ( I would be reviewing technical indicators at this point )
I'm crypto believer and that's just the beggining. Market will recover once again and we will be looking new highs soon. Stay patient and positive my friends
Good luck !
Lets see if we can go long, we need volume and break some resistances.
Bitcoin won't die here folks