BITCOIN getting closer and closer to the 1W MA200

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing a very disappointing start to this week's (1W) candle. This development however is making the price getting closer and closer to fulfil the strongest technical condition of Cyclical behavior: the bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).

That level is now around 22290 but perhaps an even more interesting technical feat is that the current Cycle is approaching the end of the 67 week count, which is how long the previous two measured from their High to the moment the Parabolic Rally started.

As you see on the chart, the Cycle that started on the December 11 2017 1W candle, ended 67 weeks after on March 25 2019, when a 13 week Rally started. The rather Phase not Cycle that started after the June 24 2019 High, also ended 67 weeks later on October 05 2020, when a 27 week (almost 2 times the previous) Rally started. The current Cycle started on the April 12 2021 High (though not the absolute High) and if it is proportionate to the previous, the 67 weeks count ends on July 25 2022.

By that time, the price 'should' have made contact with the 1W MA200. The question is will the Parabolic Rally that will follow measure 13, 27 or 54 weeks (assuming that each Rally is twice as long as the previous)? Well all three projections are illustrated on the chart. Note that these are not projecting the price (i.e. how high) but rather the duration (how long).

Also assuming that the new Rally will be basically only the start of a new hyper Bull Cycle, we can very well see the whole projection with the green double curve pattern. Note that historically, Cycles post their strongest Rallies after each Halving. See the true extent of the Rally after the May 2020 Halving (3). The next Halving (4) is projected to be around March 2024.

Finally, an interesting piece of information is the Bullish Cross that the 1W STOCH RSI has posted. When those are made near the oversold 0 level towards the end of the 67 week Phase, they tend to be market bottoms.


So what do you think? Does BTC have really only a month or so before a new Parabolic Rally? Or "this time is different"? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!



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