Trend: Still bullish
We believe the bear trend ended in December 2019. And if COVID didn’t happen, the bull trend starting point would have been the 7k range last year. Miner capitulation and on-chain cycles are two of the most accurate fundamental cycle measurements, and these show strong signs since 7k. Is there a chance to turn to trend? Yes, absolutely. However, we haven’t seen enough confirmations. Every bull-to-bear trend switch starts with a correction, but if every correction is seen as a trend switch, not much profit could be made out of the bull run. The way we are looking at this is CONSISTENTLY trading all corrections until getting stopped out on the last one.
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs.
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a long-term sign.
3. Overall Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is turning .
4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment:
Selling in profit and in bull trend. We kept picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure in the past few days, and this is for the short term.
5. Margin Market Actions
Just got a potential short squeeze alert yesterday. This is for the short term.
6. SPX impact:
See the ideas linked at the bottom.
1. Trendline crossover below (both significant as strong support and potential reversal timing)
2. Target: 10k for this week
3. Wave developments:
We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 8.7k – 10k.
At key bull trend support. Also 2 strong reversals occurred (price higher low + lower low).
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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