BTC: Don’t be bearish yet!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Trend: Still bullish
We believe the bear trend ended in December 2019. And if COVID didn’t happen, the bull trend starting point would have been the 7k range last year. Miner capitulation and on-chain volume cycles are two of the most accurate fundamental cycle measurements, and these show strong bullish signs since 7k. Is there a chance to turn to bearish trend? Yes, absolutely. However, we haven’t seen enough confirmations. Every bull-to-bear trend switch starts with a correction, but if every correction is seen as a trend switch, not much profit could be made out of the bull run. The way we are looking at this is CONSISTENTLY trading all corrections until getting stopped out on the last one.

Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs.
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.
3. Overall Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is turning bearish .
4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment:
Selling in profit and in bull trend. We kept picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure in the past few days, and this is bullish for the short term.
5. Margin Market Actions
Just got a potential short squeeze alert yesterday. This is bullish for the short term.
6. SPX impact:
See the ideas linked at the bottom.

Key Technicals:
1. Trendline crossover below (both significant as strong support and potential reversal timing)
2. Target: 10k for this week
3. Wave developments:
We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 8.7k – 10k.
4. RSI:
At key bull trend support. Also 2 strong bullish reversals occurred (price higher low + RSI lower low).

Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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Comment: After another week of side way actions, BTC is looking less bullish for the short-term.
Comment: There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run.
Comment: Detailed weekly setup updated. Downward pressure expected at 9.8k.
Comment: Weekly outlook now updated!
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Bitcoin doesn't have power enough right now. as long as the volume is low we can not expect a real uptrend. so yes bitcoin has a chance to go up around 10,000 again but with the lack of interest and volume
it will fall twice more. so to me at this time any moves upper than 9500 is bull trap
+1 Reply
Phi-Deltalytics bestfarbit74
@bestfarbit74, actually, giving the recent sideway development, I'm leaning more bearish for the short-term. I think we still had a chance for interest and volume pick up last week, but looking a lot less likely now.
+1 Reply
bestfarbit74 Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, yes that's what I'm saying
Network is dictating that the bull market is coming, price will have to keep up!

+1 Reply
Phi-Deltalytics dragononcrypto
@dragononcrypto, thanks for sharing.
Phi-Deltalytics dragononcrypto
@dragononcrypto, was originally expecting the halving giving us the capitulation and eventually the push to the upside. Now with COVID hitting in March, everything is fast forwarded. Doubt we'll even experience a similar drop like the last halving.
+2 Reply
dragononcrypto Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, likewise. 3 extrapolations point to the upside, even the March capitulation extrapolation points upwards first. If we get back above $10.5K, then I don't see us falling much further down anymore. Staying open minded though. COVID round 2 crash is still possible...
Phi-Deltalytics dragononcrypto
@dragononcrypto, the current side way action is looking alarming... No doubt on the long-term bullishness, but I'm leaning toward a deeper retracement now. Check out the update.
dragononcrypto Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, Thanks for sharing. I was eyeing up a dead cat bounce to $9.4K earlier in the week, on the shorter time-frames, but looks like bulls could only make it to $9.3K. Price is weaker than I thought...

great analysis, thanks for the update
+1 Reply
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