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BITCOIN The Blueprint to the next Cycle Top

INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) on the 1W time-frame and displays a projection both in terms of pricing and timing of its next Cycle modelled out of the previous three using the following attributes:

* The Halvings.
* Fibonacci extensions from Cycle Top to Bottom to calculate the next Top.
* Top-to-Top-to-Bottom-Bottom-to-Halving stats and vice versa.


Basically this is an extension and combination of previous studies that we've published here on TradingView.

The features of the New Cycle based on the previous ones:

- There is a potential Bottom for the current Cycle around $11500 and this is based on a -83% decrease from the $69000 Top. The previous two Cycles made a Bottom at -83% and -86% from their respective Tops.

- This Bottom is expected to be on the week of November 07 2022 based on the Top-to-Bottom stat, calculated at 52 weeks (364 days). This is consistent with the previous two Cycles Top-to-Bottom stats at 52 weeks (364 days) and 59 weeks (413 days) respectively.

- The Bottom-to-Top range for the next Cycle is calculated at 152 bars/ weeks (1064 days), giving a potential Top on the week of October 06 2025. The previous two Cycles Bottom-to-Top stats have also been 152 weeks (1064 days), while the earlier one 110 weeks (770 days).

- That Top of the new Cycle, can potentially be around $200000, calculated on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous Top and the next potential Bottom. The Top of the previous Cycle was a little over 1.618, while the Tops of the previous two Cycles were around the 2.383 Fib. Having lower tops, i.e. lower returns is consistent with the Theory of Diminishing Returns in time.

- The Halving-to-Top ranges at 83 weeks (581 days), while the Top-to-Top at 204 weeks (1428 days) projected after the previous two Cycles.

- The price on the date of the Halving can potentially be around $34500. That is calculate at -50% from the top, consistent with the previous three Cycles (-50%, -46% and -60% respectively).

- Also the Bottom-to-Bottom stat (calculated at 204 weeks/ 1428 days) gives an estimated Bottom to the next Cycle around the week of October 05 2026.


If I forget something, it is all on the chart for you to see and draw your own conclusions. As the title says this is a Blueprint of the next Cycle, a roadmap purely drawn on Bitcoin's historical data at hand. The reality can turn out to be quite different if the fundamentals weigh differently this time but in a market of constantly moving variables, this 'Blueprint' may be a good way to start and do your own research.


So how useful do you think this model is? Do you agree with the potential Bottom and Top levels? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!


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