Please be advised that this is only an idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself. Never put more than 2-4% of your account in one trade.
************** This is only an update of my previous BTC ideas, please find the original ideas related *******************
Give this idea a like to see more strategies like this on Tradingview, I'll give small updates only on Twitter .
Updated targets are marked with a (!).
We ruined the BTC party many times since the 20.000 top. You'll find the ideas related. Well, let's do it again ;). I know a lot of people won't agree with this idea, because BTC is so now. No problem, but I've seen recoverys like this before. It's normal in a downtrend.
What a power was that yesterday and it came from nowhere. Another confirmation how unpredicatable crypto market can be. But for the longer term, it's possible to predict it more accurate. Just to follow the lines. How larger the timeframe, how more you can trust it. For the longer term we bounced the 50ma weekly as expected. What we saw yesterday was a break of the longer term declining resistance line since the $20.000 top. What happens every time as we see recovery, people are targeting BTC on 13000 and 20000 again. Well, for now. We don't have that signals. We are still in a superbearish trend. Yup, the is weakened a little, but that's doesn't mean nothing for now. It was just recovery, but it happened very fast. We formed LH after LH and LL after LL and we might form a new LH next days. Furthermore, we still are in a large on the weekly time frame. As soon as we close with a daily candle above resistance (1) I agree with the bulls and maybe I will revise my vision then. For now, it's still an obvious short.
We shorted BTC since $11300,- and we have reached our first three targets. Please, find the ideas in the related ideas or on my channel. Personally I'm short in steps since around $15.000,-. (Red dotted line) This was a level were a lot of people were making analyses with price targets of $100.000,-, totaly insane in my opinion. If you are short since the original idea, congrats with your profits!
I've added a new short setup here. Find more info how to trade in my previous ideas.
Short 1: Now (33,3%)
Short 2: 50ma daily (33,3%)
Short 3: 9100 (33,3%)
Target 1: 20ma daily (!)
Target 2: 50 ma weekly (!)
Target 3: 6800
Target 4: 6200
Target 5: 4600
After this, I made a great profit with this strategy and I can start with strategy 2.
I expect a (mid-long term) trend reversal in this zone. So I'll start to buy Bitcoin 2.10% -6.19% here again. The has a range of 3990-4600. So I'll set orders at various levels.
Buy 1: $4600,- (25%)
Buy 2: $4400,- (25%)
Buy 3: $4200,- (25%)
Buy 4: $4000,- (25%)
If we reach all our buy targets, we are in this trade for an average of $4300,- (Buy 1;2;3,4/Total buy levels). If we don't reach all our buy levels, we are in this trade with a lower amount, but we bought at the bottom or near to the bottom!
TP 1: $6952 (partial)
TP 2: $7867 (partial)
TP 3: $8782 (final)
Take partial profit at each target. I expect a continuation of the downtrend after reaching target 3. So, this will open short chances again. I'll provide you with a new chart if this scenario happens.
If we close with a candle on the below the reversal zone ($3990), sell all your positions immediately and take your loss. The reversal has failed and we go further with strategy 3.
I used to many caracters so there is no room for strategy 3 here. ;)
*If this scenario happens, I'll update this idea with extra profit targets between the short level and the final target.
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This might be the top. If it isn't 9.100 is our next strong resistance. If you take a look on the daily chart and this was it than this was only some recovery in a downtrend as we have seen a lot since the 20.000 top.
Daily 50ma is still a strong resistance. Remember that we still need a break below the 50ma weekly to continue our strong downtrend. I expect this to happen soon. We are heading to our first target and 7.400 will be our only support on this way.
Here we go again? H & S might trigger a further BTC sell-off. If so, we formed a perfect lower high and the bulls are trapped again, like they were so many times since the 20.000 top. First support might be the 200ma hourly. After the break of this level we will reach our first target soon, the 20ma daily.
Boring days for BTC.... We failed to break the blue support line in my previous chart. This automically led to another day of consolidation. A lot of people turning bullish again. I'll stick to my plan, and there are still no reasons to think the other way. For example look to the first chart I posted in this idea. Really nothing changed since that post.
We are trading in a 500 dollar range for a week now. 7900-8400. So if you trade alt-coins sticked to BTC, it BTC is very predictable, so you know when to watch out. If BTC will break 8400 a test towards 8900-9100 is possible. This is the top I described in my main idea. I don't expect a break of this resistance and this will automatically mean that we are still in very strong bearish trend. If BTC fails to break 8400 it will lead to another test of 7900. What we need is a break of 7900. This will give BTC some freedom again. I have drawn al possibilities in the chart for next days. I hope we will see some price action next days :)
1.A double top only form after a significant rally before the first top... here, we see infact there is a bottom and the first top u mention is a part of the down channel run... there is no severe forcing to call that as a double top without any proceeding rally... look at the previous double top, that is a classical one, with a proper rally to call it a "top"
2.Descending triangle... This is a continuation pattern > reversal pattern... any triangle always holds significance when they are a part of the trend , not at the top of a trend or trend setting itself....i completely disregard this is a triangle, aslo because there is a severe volume fluctuations intra triangle.. nand this rather is a channel descending , giving a down wick/candle.. Most of the triangle space is empty which raises suspicion more...
I understand, seeing so much profits getting wiped out on a single candle.. but this is the game... accept and adopt to the changes in the market...
This is going to completely wipe out your profits if u dont get the parasite out of the gut.... which here is the whales btw...
What you describe is only the most common way to use these patterns and you gave an excelent description of it. But I have to say you call my way of using it unjustly absurd. It is not. If you want I can give you multiple examples, but forgive if it takes a while. I don't have always time to discuss here, but I like to do it. The way I used it in this idea, is absolutely valid.
About the last point: Here too you make a wrong conclussion. I'll be the last one who won't accept a reversal in this market. But there are no clear reversal signs now. Besisdes that, I always trade both ways. For example, I profited from this huge green candle. If you really want to see evidence of it, please check my Twitter-account. After closing my long positions I analyzed BTC again and what I see now is that this is still an obvious bear-market with great short chances as described in the idea. So I'm short again. When I spot a bull market I go long, simple as that. But I don't see it now.
Could you explain me why you think the other way? I'm looking forward to it.
Don't think we will reach the 100ma. 50ma is more realistic. :)