However, when i look at some alt coins, i see a different shape. With ETH' already hanging just above an important , with XRP' giving away the whole rally which it made a week ago. XLM' simply getting dumped like nobody wants to have that one anymore. Litecoin' might be the only one that really trying to push up, trying to do a second rally.
When i zoom out and look at the past 6/8 months, with several alts i can see a similar picture from the Aug/Nov period and the past 2 months. Making a big rally (the BTC' rally to 8.500) and then taking several months dropping slowly. Making some small pumps in the meantime but with the general direction being downwards.
Big difference with Bitcoin in that period, we had a triangle shape. Giving the market the impression that upwards movement had the same odds as making a drop. This time, with the , it's starting to look like there is no way this market can move up. With each attempt to move up it gets pushed down even harder.
So still mixed signals, still very difficult to judge. But for now i am going to let Bitcoin' determine the direction and ignoring the alts. With ignoring them, i mean ignoring the TA them, but i will watch to see if we see weakness increase compared to Bitcoin . Meaning, that when Bitcoin goes sideways or drops a little bit, to see if alts make big dumps. Because that usually results in Bitcoin following the rest of the market. Something we saw on 14 Nov 2018, where Bitcoin was dropping slowly the days prior to that date and alts were starting to drop a lot. Eventually alts accelerated downwards and Bitcoin' started to follow a while later.
For the rest, i would watch that big black on the left, as long as it stays above that line, bulls have a decent chance. On the right we can see that breakout of that smaller failed, made a second attempt to break up but failed again with a small Bart move that happened earlier today. Open Intrest keeps increasing on Bitmex, it's almost 450 mil at the moment. But i also remember, the weeks prior to 6K drop, the market sentiment was turning slowly as well. So i suggest to being very careful the coming period, whether your a bull or a bear.
This big correctional move since a month ago, has shows several ABC's, what the bulls need to see, is something i have drawn on the left. An impulse wave, where wave 4 stays above the previous high (of wave 1). I have drawn black lines in the ABC's of the past month, levels where the price should have stayed above to be the start of a rally. Until we see that happen, the direction is simply down.
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This is not a fractal, but this is something to watch as well the coming days, to see if we see a similar pattern happen again.
A few examples
Because many alts went up a bit, but most all below previous lows (resistance levels). Which is quite bearish if those levels don't break soon. Like XRP 0.30ish level, ETH's 107ish level.
Because if Bitcoin breaks the low, we could see alts getting dumped and the whole bullish scenario will become very unlikely.