Bitcoin's Big ABC Still in Play? Part 4

Amazing to see how this slow sideways movement just never seems to be ending. Moving one week inside a 50 point range almost. Keeping the whole market on edge to whether we see a big dump or a big pump happen soon. Normally when a market drops so slowly inside of the shape of a wedge, with volume dropping as well, it's usually a bullish sign. Usually means that bears are loosing strength and that the bulls simply let the selling come towards them. Like their current stage is a test to see how strong the bears still are.

However, when i look at some alt coins, i see a different shape. With ETH' already hanging just above an important support zone, with XRP' giving away the whole rally which it made a week ago. XLM' simply getting dumped like nobody wants to have that one anymore. Litecoin' might be the only one that really trying to push up, trying to do a second rally.

When i zoom out and look at the past 6/8 months, with several alts i can see a similar picture from the Aug/Nov period and the past 2 months. Making a big rally (the BTC' rally to 8.500) and then taking several months dropping slowly. Making some small pumps in the meantime but with the general direction being downwards.

Big difference with Bitcoin in that period, we had a triangle shape. Giving the market the impression that upwards movement had the same odds as making a drop. This time, with the wedge, it's starting to look like there is no way this market can move up. With each attempt to move up it gets pushed down even harder.

So still mixed signals, still very difficult to judge. But for now i am going to let Bitcoin' determine the direction and ignoring the alts. With ignoring them, i mean ignoring the TA them, but i will watch to see if we see weakness increase compared to Bitcoin. Meaning, that when Bitcoin goes sideways or drops a little bit, to see if alts make big dumps. Because that usually results in Bitcoin following the rest of the market. Something we saw on 14 Nov 2018, where Bitcoin was dropping slowly the days prior to that date and alts were starting to drop a lot. Eventually alts accelerated downwards and Bitcoin' started to follow a while later.

For the rest, i would watch that big black trend line on the left, as long as it stays above that line, bulls have a decent chance. On the right we can see that breakout of that smaller wedge failed, made a second attempt to break up but failed again with a small Bart move that happened earlier today. Open Intrest keeps increasing on Bitmex, it's almost 450 mil at the moment. But i also remember, the weeks prior to 6K drop, the market sentiment was turning slowly bullish as well. So i suggest to being very careful the coming period, whether your a bull or a bear.

This big correctional move since a month ago, has shows several ABC's, what the bulls need to see, is something i have drawn on the left. An impulse wave, where wave 4 stays above the previous high (of wave 1). I have drawn black lines in the ABC's of the past month, levels where the price should have stayed above to be the start of a rally. Until we see that happen, the direction is simply down.




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An example of what i meant with, watching Alts compared to Bitcoin, if we start to see them slip away. Before the Nov crash happened, the last few hours. If we see this happen with several alts, meaning Bitcoin dropping a little while alts starting to get dumped, it usually is a very bearish sign and that Bitcoin will probably follow.

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This 'pattern' is something that worries me the past days for the bulls. Something i mentioned back then as well, that we had a break up from that triangle, but could not push up, eventually testing the trend line of the triangle several times with the bounces up getting weaker and weaker and eventually the crash happened.

This is not a fractal, but this is something to watch as well the coming days, to see if we see a similar pattern happen again.

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We just made a small drop with Bitcoin, but i find it a bit odd that alts were stronger than Bitcoin there. Where BTC made a new low, most did not. And many made a big bounce up as well. So wondering if this is a sign or not, because until now it was the other way around.
A few examples

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Update ETH analysis:

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Still no direction, volume also still dropping, it predicts a big move might be coming soon. I think there is room for 1 more day at these levels, then we should see a move up, otherwise i don't think this potential double bottom will work out. There is also room for another test of the lows (purple line) but then the bulls really need to take over.

Because many alts went up a bit, but most all below previous lows (resistance levels). Which is quite bearish if those levels don't break soon. Like XRP 0.30ish level, ETH's 107ish level.
Because if Bitcoin breaks the low, we could see alts getting dumped and the whole bullish scenario will become very unlikely.

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New Bitcoin analysis