🔥 Bitcoin's Capitulation Expected: Bear-Market Low Target

A couple of days ago I made an analysis about my expectation on Bitcoin's reaction to the most recent FOMC interest rates decision. See my elaborate post below.

Whilst the initial reaction was bullish , we sold off very hard the day after (yesterday) the FOMC meeting. Whilst a lot of technical and fundamental indicators pointed bullish , we did not get what a lot of investors expected.

Lesson learned: when everyone is watching a certain area to hold, it will likely not hold. Same happened when BTC was trading at $40k in January.

In my most recent bullish analyses I noted that I expected a short-term bullish move, but was bearish in the long-term. The fact that we're likely to see a bearish break-out of my Bitcoin Pitchfork (see below) just moved my long-term bearishness a month forward.

If stocks continue their sell-off in the coming weeks, I'm expecting a bearish break out of the bullish channel / pitchfork pattern that BTC was trading in. If we lose this support, I think a capitulation event will likely follow. In
my opinion, if the current support (yellow circle) will hold it will only push the bearish break out back by a few days/weeks.

My bearish capitulation target area is the area between the Summer-21 low and $20k, see the green square. Note that the 200-week SMA will trade between 23k-26k by the time we arrive there. During ALL last cycles, the 200-week SMA has been touched at the lows at the bear market. This area marked the bottom of the bear market and the path from there as only been UP.

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