BITCOIN All bearish barriers broken. Stairway to $70k?

Last week (April 27) I published the following trading plan:


The idea was simple. As long as Bitcoin found Resistance on the Lower Highs trend-line (of the 65k High), it would pull back continuously to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), similar to the late March test of the (at that time) Lower Highs trend-line. The last barrier to break before the bullish break-out confirmation was the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which it did, BTC successfully broke above not only the 4H MA100 but the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) too.


** Phase 1, 2 and 3 leading to a Channel Up **
This study is based on that pattern but I am extending it a bit adding to the sequence the early March price action, which as you see on the chart also included a Lower Highs trend-line break-out.

What happened both on Phase 1 (early March) and Phase 2 (late March/ early April) after the Lower Highs break-out, was a re-test of that trend-line and the 4H MA100 as a Support, before a Channel Up (green pattern) started that led to new a All Time High (ATH). On both occasions the new ATH was around a 1.236 Fibonacci extension from the previous ATH. Right now this is approximately around $70000.


** The 4H MA50/100 Golden Cross and the RSI **
It is important to note here that every Channel Up started after a 4H MA50/MA100 Golden Cross (i.e. the MA50 crossing above the MA100) took place. Right now we are 2-3 days before a potential new Golden Cross. Also the RSI is above the soft Resistance (red) and since March when the RSI hit the red flag level, it either started the Channel Up (green curve on the RSI) or pulled back near the Support (blue curve), which meant consolidation with the 4H MA100 supporting. Both cases lead to a Channel Up.


But what do you think? Is this "Phase 1, 2, 3 pattern" reliable and if so will you aim for a rough $70k target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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