Your move BTC (Daily Chart Update) Inverted H&S still in play

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Update from Last Week
- Bitcoin pulled back after that nice rally last week.
- The H&S I had painted didn't play out and BTC topped out at $6800. (Lots of traders on r/BitcoinMarkets were talking about setting up shorts at that price including myself.)
- Now we are having the pullback.

Bull Scenario
- The Inverted Head and Shoulder plays out and we get a push to $6450.
- A test of the previous support now resistance levels at $6200 and $6400 will be the areas to watch.
- That being said, $6800 saw HUGE resistance and will be my target for a long should BTC move up. (I'll adjust as necessary)
- RSI is showing hidden bullish divergence on the shorter time frames with BTC in oversold conditions. A move up is possible!

Bear Scenario
- BTC tests $6100 and breaks past.
- If it does this we will test that $5800 zone again.
- This might be the final capitulation event should it break $5800.
- RSI is still hovering around 40 on the Daily so it still has room to move down.

What I'm doing
- I closed my short from $6800 and $6350 here at $6180.
- Currently I'm waiting to see if this Inverted H&S does play out.
- I plan on reassessing tonight around midnight PST since the Asian market tends to pick up between 1-3am PST and try to see what the charts say.
- The bottom, imo , is still between $5-5.5k.
- Not opening a short until it breaks $6100.
- Not opening a long unless we break $6200.

- Biggest news to come out is more info on the Bitcoin ETF by the CBOE .
- SEC will give a decision on it August 10th (I've read conflicting dates but this one is mentioned the most.)
- Volatility has dropped a lot over the last few months as we've been grinding, this is a signal that we are close to the bottom.
Comment: Nice volume spike.

Opened my long @ $6205 with a target of $6300
Trade closed manually: Closed my long @ $6280. It had been rejected multiple times at $6290-$6300.
Right now the 10 EMA on the Daily and 30 EMA on the 4hr are both around $6425 so if it DOES move to the upside then that'll be the max it'll go if it breaks $6300.
Bulls have come in with the volume.
The right shoulder has formed, time to see if they can push past $6800.

Personally, I'm taking a break until this plays out. Doing my best not to overtrade or get cocky.

I am short term bullish with the ETF news and can see a July rally happening if we break $6800. I'll post up an updated chart on Wednesday.


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