Bitcoin - The Last Stand - for now.....
Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas!
This fight has been epic. We take a few hundred, we give up a few hundred, back and forth, back and forth. A real fight. I call the post "The Last Time" because I think we are quickly approaching a major decision point. As you can see on this daily chart the price is being forced down toward the rising multi-year baby blue average that I have been watching for a long time. For this history of the Coinbase Exchange this line has proven to be upper resistance on multiple occasions in previous years and has only been broken to the upside TWICE. Once in 2017 when we ran to $20K and again recently. The Bears obviously do not want us to hold this line as evidenced by how hard they are fighting to break it. Even after they got poked in the butt they came back for more. A formidable opponent for sure. But I digress. I think this fight is going to resolve by the end of this week, Sunday, and certainly by close of business next Monday. We are just running out of room on the daily chart. One of these two line is going to get violated one way or the other. We could of course crab walk to the right at the apex and meander around for awhile more but I doubt it. People want resolution. Can we hold the line and break $8100 with conviction? Or, are we going to break the long held trend and seek lower opportunities? I'm still in the camp of holding the line. Why? It's just too clean and would further establish the trend. Something we can hang our hats on going forward. If it breaks, and we get multiple closes below the line then what? It back to a guessing game until something else solid materializes.
My plan? If we hold the line and break out with volume I'm buying the breakout. If we fall off this cliff I'll wait for better prices later if I can get them. It is possible, I suppose, that we could pierce the line for a day or two and then roar back over it before the weekly close. The weekly chart would show a spike down, but the close would still be above the line. This would be my second best choice as apposed to not having the line violated again at all. The worst case in my opinion is to have a weekly close below the line. This would not bode well for near term prices and may give the Bears the confidence they need to keep hammering away at it. In the 2008 financial crisis I made a good chunk of change shorting the S&P futures on margin as well as shorting some banks with PUTs or direct shorts. I know the thrill of making money when everyone else is losing their shirt. Bitcoin, however, is NOT one of those instruments to be played with in that manner. When it breaks North, really breaks North, a lot of bear are going to get their faces ripped off. I do not want to be one of them. I do not believe Bitcoin is going to zero so there is not much meat on the bone to the downside for me. The upside however is unlimited. Literally the sky is the limit. I would never want to short against those odds, especially with leverage. But that's just me. At any rate, these are my current thoughts, do with them what you will. This is all just one person's opinion of what they see in the chart.
Good luck!
P.S. We could breakout one way or the other at any time. Sunday is just the maximum limit on how much time we may have. It could literally happen any time this week.
This fight has been epic. We take a few hundred, we give up a few hundred, back and forth, back and forth. A real fight. I call the post "The Last Time" because I think we are quickly approaching a major decision point. As you can see on this daily chart the price is being forced down toward the rising multi-year baby blue average that I have been watching for a long time. For this history of the Coinbase Exchange this line has proven to be upper resistance on multiple occasions in previous years and has only been broken to the upside TWICE. Once in 2017 when we ran to $20K and again recently. The Bears obviously do not want us to hold this line as evidenced by how hard they are fighting to break it. Even after they got poked in the butt they came back for more. A formidable opponent for sure. But I digress. I think this fight is going to resolve by the end of this week, Sunday, and certainly by close of business next Monday. We are just running out of room on the daily chart. One of these two line is going to get violated one way or the other. We could of course crab walk to the right at the apex and meander around for awhile more but I doubt it. People want resolution. Can we hold the line and break $8100 with conviction? Or, are we going to break the long held trend and seek lower opportunities? I'm still in the camp of holding the line. Why? It's just too clean and would further establish the trend. Something we can hang our hats on going forward. If it breaks, and we get multiple closes below the line then what? It back to a guessing game until something else solid materializes.
My plan? If we hold the line and break out with volume I'm buying the breakout. If we fall off this cliff I'll wait for better prices later if I can get them. It is possible, I suppose, that we could pierce the line for a day or two and then roar back over it before the weekly close. The weekly chart would show a spike down, but the close would still be above the line. This would be my second best choice as apposed to not having the line violated again at all. The worst case in my opinion is to have a weekly close below the line. This would not bode well for near term prices and may give the Bears the confidence they need to keep hammering away at it. In the 2008 financial crisis I made a good chunk of change shorting the S&P futures on margin as well as shorting some banks with PUTs or direct shorts. I know the thrill of making money when everyone else is losing their shirt. Bitcoin, however, is NOT one of those instruments to be played with in that manner. When it breaks North, really breaks North, a lot of bear are going to get their faces ripped off. I do not want to be one of them. I do not believe Bitcoin is going to zero so there is not much meat on the bone to the downside for me. The upside however is unlimited. Literally the sky is the limit. I would never want to short against those odds, especially with leverage. But that's just me. At any rate, these are my current thoughts, do with them what you will. This is all just one person's opinion of what they see in the chart.
Good luck!
P.S. We could breakout one way or the other at any time. Sunday is just the maximum limit on how much time we may have. It could literally happen any time this week.
Comment:
Just another thought - There is always the possibility they spike the price below the trend line as far as the stops allow (stop hunting) which blows everybody out of their position and then it rockets right back up into the triangle and bust North out the other side. I've seen it before and it's one of the worst ways to get taken out. You lose your long position and then have to buy back at higher prices. Obviously I'm not saying this has to happen, just that it could happen. At some point people have to decide if they want to actually own bitcoin or not or just keep trying to flip it for dollars. If your strategy is just flipping then a stop is part of your strategy I'm sure. Just be careful where you place it.
Comment:
It's a perfect fit with the trend line. I would love to see it hold....
Comment:
This is an example of the stop hunting I was talking about above.