Has BITCOIN seen the top? Halving Cycles and Diminishing returns

This is not the first time that I have used the Halving-centered approach to my long-term analysis. You may find examples of previous research on the topic at the end of this study. It is however the first time that I will illustrate the data on the linear scale instead of the logarithmic. This allows for an interesting comparison.

As with previous studies, I have classified Bitcoin into four (4) Cycles:

* Cycle 1 starts on BTC's Genesis and ends on Halving 1.
* Cycle 2 starts after Halving 1 and ends on Halving 2.
* Cycle 3 starts after Halving 2 and ends on Halving 3.
* Cycle 4 starts after Halving 3 and ends on Halving 4.

Each Cycle's Top is consistent with the Theory of Diminishing returns. That suggests that each of Bitcoin's Cycle Peak is lower than the previous one, offering diminishing returns (ROI) over time:

* The scale on Cycle 2 is 40x from the previous Cycle (Cycle 1).
* The scale on Cycle 3 is 20x (50% less) from the previous Cycle (Cycle 2).
* The scale on Cycle 4 is 10x (50% less) from the previous Cycle (Cycle 3).

The model suggests that as the current Cycle (Cycle 4) is still on its start, it still off its Diminishing Returns Target by a big margin. Assuming the target is a level lower on the scale, $150000 seems like the model's target on the current Cycle.

Do you agree?


Examples of prior literature on the Halving approach:





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