Hello everyone.
OK, so maybe a few of you are asking where is BTC going now. It seems we had an amazing rally up to now and then it just stopped.
Perhaps you are thinking, we are just consolidating and soon, just like at 6800 and 7800, we will see that green candle that will take us to 8800. Maybe.
Perhaps you are thinking, we are going to double top and go back down to the abyss ... maybe.
Certainly, there are confusing signals creeping up, and that to me is a sign we have possibly found at least a short term top. No doubt BTC is in need of some correction, or we risk forming huge resistance in the 8200 - 8600 range, given enough time at this level.
When we were close to the bottom, we touched 6k and bounced back to 6.2k ... the bears tried taking BTC down to quickly after that, and the best they got was 5.7k. That in my mind was a critical mistake. Had they let BTC go up a bit, or at least sideways for a few days, the longs would have given up and been more prepared to take profit. The bear supporters would have started to build some confidence again to short at 6.2k ... but they didn't even let it hold there for a day ... and down. Bad move!
The fact of the matter is, going up or going down there needs to be consolidation and/or corrections to help the movement. And if the bulls take BTC up to fast now, well they're gonna run out of steam very fast too, and make the same mistake the bears did at the bottom!
Perhaps I'm wrong and the whales have another plan in mind ... perhaps we can go all the way to 10k with no stops (I doubt it), but I think it's only natural after an almost 3000 point move up, there should be a correction.
There's really only three key questions in my mind:
(1) How much further up can we go before we start dropping? ... right now I'm banking on 8600 to 8800. I've already started taking partial profits on long positions. I'm thinking double top and then down, the pink/purple wave I show assumes we can go a little higher.
(2) When will the correction start happening? ... I think the whales will give BTC a little time to consolidate, only because they want the alts to rise, so they can profit in those too. So I'm thinking maybe they'll give us the weekend to see some alt relief. Once the alts start faltering, it probably will only be a matter of time before BTC drops.
(3) How deep is the correction going to be? ... I'd expect us to hit the 0.236 as a minimum (my fibo plotted from 5755 and assumes a top of 8600), which puts us on 7930. But the correction is still considered normal even if we retrace 0.618, which would take us to 6850. There is huge support at 6800 - 6900 now. If we crack that ... ouch.
So what do I have in mind ... based on that last point (3) ... blue wave if we stay above 6900 - 7000. Red wave if we crack 6800 support. Of course there's many possibilities, but I'm showing a bullish scenario (blue wave) and bearish scenario (red wave) ... this next correction is going to be crucial in deciding if, how and when we could see a new low for 2018.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/financial/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
OK, so maybe a few of you are asking where is BTC going now. It seems we had an amazing rally up to now and then it just stopped.
Perhaps you are thinking, we are just consolidating and soon, just like at 6800 and 7800, we will see that green candle that will take us to 8800. Maybe.
Perhaps you are thinking, we are going to double top and go back down to the abyss ... maybe.
Certainly, there are confusing signals creeping up, and that to me is a sign we have possibly found at least a short term top. No doubt BTC is in need of some correction, or we risk forming huge resistance in the 8200 - 8600 range, given enough time at this level.
When we were close to the bottom, we touched 6k and bounced back to 6.2k ... the bears tried taking BTC down to quickly after that, and the best they got was 5.7k. That in my mind was a critical mistake. Had they let BTC go up a bit, or at least sideways for a few days, the longs would have given up and been more prepared to take profit. The bear supporters would have started to build some confidence again to short at 6.2k ... but they didn't even let it hold there for a day ... and down. Bad move!
The fact of the matter is, going up or going down there needs to be consolidation and/or corrections to help the movement. And if the bulls take BTC up to fast now, well they're gonna run out of steam very fast too, and make the same mistake the bears did at the bottom!
Perhaps I'm wrong and the whales have another plan in mind ... perhaps we can go all the way to 10k with no stops (I doubt it), but I think it's only natural after an almost 3000 point move up, there should be a correction.
There's really only three key questions in my mind:
(1) How much further up can we go before we start dropping? ... right now I'm banking on 8600 to 8800. I've already started taking partial profits on long positions. I'm thinking double top and then down, the pink/purple wave I show assumes we can go a little higher.
(2) When will the correction start happening? ... I think the whales will give BTC a little time to consolidate, only because they want the alts to rise, so they can profit in those too. So I'm thinking maybe they'll give us the weekend to see some alt relief. Once the alts start faltering, it probably will only be a matter of time before BTC drops.
(3) How deep is the correction going to be? ... I'd expect us to hit the 0.236 as a minimum (my fibo plotted from 5755 and assumes a top of 8600), which puts us on 7930. But the correction is still considered normal even if we retrace 0.618, which would take us to 6850. There is huge support at 6800 - 6900 now. If we crack that ... ouch.
So what do I have in mind ... based on that last point (3) ... blue wave if we stay above 6900 - 7000. Red wave if we crack 6800 support. Of course there's many possibilities, but I'm showing a bullish scenario (blue wave) and bearish scenario (red wave) ... this next correction is going to be crucial in deciding if, how and when we could see a new low for 2018.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/financial/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
Since my update tot he chart above ... not too much has changed. BTC has followed this chart very closely, only very minor adjustments need to be made. Remember this patter is based on the final drop BTc had to the bottom in 2014 ... there is an important green dashed line that you will see in the below snapshot that I believe is providing the bottom support, and the top support is the top red line (triangle top). My guess at this stage is we move sideways in a tighter range for a few weeks up to when SEC makes a decision on the CBOE ETF. Likely, the decision will be delayed, and I'm not sure if that's already priced into BTC. Let's see.
I've now removed the purple wave ... no chance of an extension to 8800 without going through this correction first. I've also looked at the 2014 price movements, and plotted an exit strategy for the bulls that I think makes sense, based on how it happened in 2014. In 2014 we would have gone down to the equivalent of around 5400 after exiting a triangle wave which lasted a while. So here you have it. So what decides blue from red ... the news we get from SEC on the CBOE ETF on Aug 16th (or close to that). Will it be rejected or delayed (probably this one), or will it be approved? My gut says, whales want to accumulate at 5k or lower and then they'll let it take off ... they need time to orchestrate this ... Aug 16th too soon ... so let's see, but I'm expecting a SEC decision DELAY.