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BITCOIN Is it DECOUPLING from the stock market?

INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Lately we see the stock market (for this analysis the S&P500 is used (blue trend-line)) falling sharply while at the same time Bitcoin (BTCUSD, orange trend-line) falls at a much lower rate or even at times remains stable (even increasing on some occasions). While this phenomenon might seem odd, especially in the eyes of people believing dogmatically that Bitcoin and the stock market are 100% correlated, it has occurred in the past and even a quick look can help us draw very useful conclusions.

On this 1W time-frame chart, I've displayed the times that the BTC - SPX decoupling has been notable. As you see, since December 2015 there have been three major and four minor occurrences where the S&P500 dropped sharply while Bitcoin remained stable and on some occasions even increased (October 2020, May 2019, late December 2018, early August 2017, October 2016). Two of them where on BTC Cycle Bottoms where a strong rally was starting. Another three was during BTC's parabolic rally phase. For obvious reasons (being a Black Swan event), I exclude the March 2020 COVID crash from the sample.

What do you think that the current divergence/ decorrelation may suggest for Bitcoin? Will it follow SPX sharply lower (if it continues to fall) or form a market bottom and start rising? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!


P.S. You might find useful looking at the BTCUSD (orange) vs BTCUSD/SPX ratio (blue trend-line) below:


Also in case your browser distorts the lines placement, this is what the main chart of this analysis looks like:





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