Good morning, traders. As I discussed was most likely to happen, during yesterday morning's live stream, Bitcoin dropped down to the $3200/3300 level depending on which exchange you were monitoring. There wasn't any immediate pop back up though so price bears closer attention at this time. The 1D chart shows a nice descending wedge and the 30 minute shows an equally nice ascending channel. The 1D and 3D RSI are printing strong bullish divergence as well.
A break upward through the ascending triangle's resistance should have price targeting the $3540 area. This will put it right back into the TR. But it must first close above the McGinley Dynamic on that 30 minute TF. This latest downward move has defined the very likely support level of a descending channel. If this is the case, then the expectation should be a move up to the top of the channel. The target mentioned above brings price to the channel's equilibrium which is the first expected resistance when trading channels. If this move down was a spring associated with the $3475-$4120 TR, then I am looking for the move up as spoken of, followed by a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475. A successful Test should then see price making its way back up toward the top of the TR. The volume on the potential Spring was more than I would've liked to have seen, so a good Test (low volume) would be imperative to signal a successful Spring. We would then likely see a pullback at the top of the channel, creating an LPS. Again, we would be looking for low volume on that pullback.
We also talked during the live stream about the larger picture and how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. But, as mentioned, price must first close above the 30 minute TF McGinley Dynamic in order to set up a possible push through the ascending triangle. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout this week in my other analysis.
Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up.
In FOREX news, U.S. NFP numbers were released today and they were pretty ugly (as I have been suggesting was most likely throughout this week) at 150K v. the consensus of 200K. This gave our Discord members opportunity to capitalize and make money as price hit our USD/CAD and EUR/USD targets. I exited my long USD/CHF position near the 50% retrace, at about 25 pips profit, as I stated was my intention during yesterday morning's live stream. I then entered long in that same pair at 0.99079 after the report this morning, which was near the bottom of the drop (because I saw bullish RSI divergence on the 5 minute TF) and exited at 0.99307 for a similar profit. I then shorted at 0.99287 and am currently sitting at about 8 pips profit and expecting continued pressure on the USD as the algos and retail traders work out their positions relating to the news.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
A break upward through the ascending triangle's resistance should have price targeting the $3540 area. This will put it right back into the TR. But it must first close above the McGinley Dynamic on that 30 minute TF. This latest downward move has defined the very likely support level of a descending channel. If this is the case, then the expectation should be a move up to the top of the channel. The target mentioned above brings price to the channel's equilibrium which is the first expected resistance when trading channels. If this move down was a spring associated with the $3475-$4120 TR, then I am looking for the move up as spoken of, followed by a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475. A successful Test should then see price making its way back up toward the top of the TR. The volume on the potential Spring was more than I would've liked to have seen, so a good Test (low volume) would be imperative to signal a successful Spring. We would then likely see a pullback at the top of the channel, creating an LPS. Again, we would be looking for low volume on that pullback.
We also talked during the live stream about the larger picture and how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. But, as mentioned, price must first close above the 30 minute TF McGinley Dynamic in order to set up a possible push through the ascending triangle. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout this week in my other analysis.
Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up.
In FOREX news, U.S. NFP numbers were released today and they were pretty ugly (as I have been suggesting was most likely throughout this week) at 150K v. the consensus of 200K. This gave our Discord members opportunity to capitalize and make money as price hit our USD/CAD and EUR/USD targets. I exited my long USD/CHF position near the 50% retrace, at about 25 pips profit, as I stated was my intention during yesterday morning's live stream. I then entered long in that same pair at 0.99079 after the report this morning, which was near the bottom of the drop (because I saw bullish RSI divergence on the 5 minute TF) and exited at 0.99307 for a similar profit. I then shorted at 0.99287 and am currently sitting at about 8 pips profit and expecting continued pressure on the USD as the algos and retail traders work out their positions relating to the news.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.