The past few hours we have made a small breakout, as we can see on the left but there is no at all. This usually makes the price drop again. The low shows their is no support for this move up, because it makes the support zones very fragile because of this. There is room up until the 4750 even but i highly doubt if we will get above that level if the stays like this. I think we might not even get above the 4650ish with this low . If we start to see many hours of sideways movement between the 4400 and 4600 zone and make small bounces up from that as i illustrated on the left, i think we will make a big dump again. This is just a scenario i plan ahead, so if we see something like this happen i will probably trade it. What i hope to see if we make another dump is to see a good high V shape low, meaning dropping 500/800 points and bouncing up almost the same amount. So not the bounce we had yesterday, because that one was too slow and without any conviction or .
On the right we can see another scenario which is a big . I see this happening if we do move higher towards the 4800 but with slow low movement. If we see that happening i will probably short it around those levels after seeing some rejection happening. In this scenario i want to see a similar thing as i mentioned above, also seeing a big panic dump. We should not see the target of this getting reached though, because that would mean we will drop to the low 3K' levels. I don't think things will go that fast, because that would need extreme panic to happen. What the bulls want to see, is a break of the flag make a big drop below it and then seeing buyers stepping in and pushing the price up to create a short squeeze. Until we see this moment happen, where bears really start to burn their hands, we will remain in these zones.
Open Interest on Mex' is finally increasing a bit again, showing interest in the market is very slowly increasing again, but it's still a low number. We should not think about the 700/800 mil numbers, because the price is much lower, but 400/500 mil would be good. Open longs on Bitfinex are increasing a bit and the shorts as well. So there is no sign of money leaving this market, which is good since Tether' caused a lot of uncertainty the past 2 months.
For more information, please read my previous analysis to know my thoughts and view of the current market conditions.
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If we see another bounce from that blue level on the right, there might be a good chance that the bulls will give it another attempt to break that resistance. It even looks like a small inverse H&S. Bears are still in favor, above that trend line would make things more neutral again.
So the 4600 and 4350 are the levels to watch for now.
So i think the range can be moved to 4050 and 4400. If the 4200ish can hold, there might be another chance to turn up. I still think bears are in favor
Simply make a lower high, when volume really fails
Break the resistance but also with very low volume.
(both red lines).
The only real bullish version, is a real break of that red zone and make a small squeeze up (blue line). If we don't see a move like this, it will probably move slowly down again.
Now what we should not forget is, the fact it's almost weekend again. The past month or 2 nothing happened during weekend except for fake small moves up and down. So where i thought yesterday we could accelerate down to the 3900, probably won't happen until Sunday. So unless we see a big drop in the coming 6 hours or so, we will probably won't see any big moves happening.
At the moment there is still a lot of resistance around this 4350/4400 zone. A break of this level could bring us towards the 4600. But same story as the previous update, without higher volume and a small squeeze, think it will just be a matter of time until we drop again. At the moment we can see the volume has been low today, which is a sign of weakness, but the volume is increasing slightly the past few hours, so there is a chance it might increase more. I don't like make predictions during weekends anymore, because we it's always PinpPong time. I am not expecting any big moves this weekend and probably see the direction again when Asia opens on Monday.
Still have the same support and resistance levels as mentioned in previous updates. Not much to add. One positive note, OI in Bitmex is increasing slowly, showing there is some confidence coming back. But still a very long way to go.
Just don't forget it's weekend, usually PinpPong movement.
On the left we can see something a bit more worrying. The past week or so i thought this movement could be turning into a bullish wedge, giving a bounce up to 4800 or maybe even 5500. But it is starting to look more like a big triangle. It can always breakout both ways, but in this bearish weak sentiment (of alts as well), a break on the downside has the bigger chances. A bear trap move is also still possible, just like i showed in my original chart. But when i made this analysis i had the wedge play in mind, not this triangle.
The red market will start tomorrow