Is this the same question you were asking yourself (and others) when the price of Bitcoin was 6000? And when the whole space said it was, what did that do for you? What would the claim that this is the bottom do for you now?
Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that?
You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you.
So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom.
Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself.
The daily chart shows a nice break of the IBR, which I suspect will result in more upside. Mondays candle got me scared of more downside, but yesterdays hammer and todays strength are good to see. The market was extremely overextended and in need of some reset, and its finally here. To trade this I’m waiting for a setup on the 4HR chart to materialise before entering anything to the long side.
The 4HR chart is interesting. The bull divergence gives this bounce some nice momentum to the upside and its crossed the trend cloud and moving into the resistance cloud (kumo). What I’d like to see is price bouncing finding resistance at the kumo and coming back to the trend cloud for support. If that happens the indicator will most likely signal a long setup, and possibly a long entry signal at the trend cloud. Unfortunately, the market is rare so accommodating so I’ll have to watch and see how price reacts. If I don’t see a setup a signal, there’s no trade. FOMO is a terrible thing, and the key to getting rekt..
If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :)
If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up.
Stay calm, and happy trading!
More information on the indicator can be found below:
Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that?
You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you.
So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom.
Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself.
If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :)
If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up.
Stay calm, and happy trading!
More information on the indicator can be found below:
Comment:
didn;t have to wait too long for the setup and trade to trigger, but the market may still correct down to the 4Hr trend line before moving into profit.
Either some ranging, or a correction possibly down to the support area. In both cases I expect a trend setup signal on the 4 HR, be patient.