BITCOIN - It's Going As Expected

Hello everyone, rouzwelt here

Well as you can clearly see in the chart, price is now reached to the lower side of the uprising yellow channel and is about to break below it, if you have been following me lately, you know that I've been talking about a potential test of the crossing point of the blue down-trend line and lower side of the uprising yellow channel in my post on June 30 (Link: www.tradingview.com/...Uprise-Continuation/), this way it would be testing these 2 potential dynamic supports at the same time. But it's worth mentioning that we still have not fully broken below it, I believe we still need more confirmations before entering a short trade, and 2 good enough confirmations for us would be candle body close below those 2 lines in 4H or daily timeframe and also a new lower low below the last swing low (red dotted line). In that case I'll be entering on my short trade which I've been talking about lately.

Below is a screenshot of my very last post, in which I was talking about my short trade setup idea at the break out of the yellow channel, and I've been projecting the probable price actions and right now as you can see it is playing out with good accuracy as I've been expecting. I also mentioned the lack of volume and demand at rallies up which is a crucial necessity of a sustainable uprise. But what we actually are seeing at this moment in the main chart is increase in volume at the current rally down, which is an indication of more supply coming in on these levels.

So with all those said above, I'll be waiting for those confirmations I mentioned before entering my short trade, as I said earlier we still have not fully invalidated the yellow channel, so we need to wait a few more hours before jumping in on a trade, because before seeing any of those confirmations, price can still get back inside the yellow channel and continue its move up, so we don't want to enter on any trade blindly.
I'd like to remind you to please check my last 2 posts on Bitcoin, because you can find the details of my short trade setup idea (entry point, SL, TP and ...) in full if you'd like to enter on this trade along with me, as they are important considerations before entering any trade. I'll be updating this post whenever I open my position. And please If you find this post useful then support me by hitting like, share and comment below if have any opinion about it, I'd appreciate it a lot.

And as always have fun and trade safe.

Comment:

nothing has changed yet technically, we have not yet broken the support of the lower side of the channel, but I believe that happens sooner or later.
but from the potential uprise continuation at this moment, we have not yet risen above the last swing high, so technically we still can expect lower levels and the break down, as we don't see any meaningful volume coming in at this short impulse move up, so it is an indication that the break down is more probable, but until we see a break-down price can still rise higher, cause technically we are still in an uprising channel.
I believe that this short uprise is just temporary, as price has reached the lower side of the channel, some reaction from buyers is expected. we should still wait and see whether buyers manage to hold the support or seller manage to break it, but I'm still leaning towards sellers at this point. So we don't have clear signal yet to enter on the trade. I'll be posting updates when one of those said above happens and plan the next move accordingly.

Comment:

I'd like to show you something which is yet another indication for us to speculate on going short and that going short is actually more logical based on all the data we have currently, and that is the H&S pattern formed on the chart as you can see below. right now price has already broken the neck line, but that doesn't change our entering strategy, we are still sticking to our plan as mentioned in the post, this update about H&S formation is just showing us the more probable outcome as we go ahead.

Comment:

Just a quick update for those who are following this post, nothing has happened since the last update, price still is sitting near the lower side of the channel, buyers are trying their best to keep the price inside the channel but I don't believe they have enough power to do so, they even failed to bring the price back up to last swing high, so we still need to see the break down before entering any trade, we still need to wait for our confirmation and we still need to stick to our plan.

Comment:

Let's update this post by saying that price have not yet shown any definitive direction yet in last 3 -4 days, we have not yet higher high getting printed so our plan is still valid and in its place.

Trade active:

So finally price break below the channel, and right now it is testing the blue down trend, I just opened a short position for myself at 32850, with SL above last swing high (-2%). if you want to be more conservative you can wait for the price to reach below the blue trend line an close below it 4H or daily to open your position.

Just bear this in mind that this is not financial advice, you're free to trade along with me if you want but do your own DD and manage your risk properly before doing so.

Comment:

I have moved my SL to entry and took 30% profit at 5%.

Comment:

I just noticed I made a mistake about SL percentage, but I told about that it should be above last swing high, and above last swing high is 8% not 2% . the right number was 8%. so sorry about that

Trade closed: stop reached:

My trade was stoped out at entry after price reaching to the entry level at 32850. but I had already booked some profits, so this trade was successful.
I'll be looking for another trade setup soon.