2 bearish targets - Falling wedge breakout or retest lows first?
Good day Traders
On the lower time frames we seem to be printing another bear flag and potentially a continuation head and shoulders (not as common as the reversal pattern but still happens). This is playing out within a larger falling wedge which is bullish, however, we have 2 bearish scenarios depending on which target we reach when the 2 bearish patterns play out and this will decide if that is in fact a falling wedge (looks a bit stretched imo but might work since we have bullish divergence of the daily MFI but it all depends on our weekly SMA200 support, which I suspect we might not even reach considering the amount of buy orders sitting around that region.
The h&s has a breakdown target of $3300 - $3350 which is also more than a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the wave down from the head and this will come close to our weekly SMA200 which is currently sitting around $3300. This would also coincide with the larger falling wedge support which means the bullish case would still be in play.
The bear flag, however, has a breakdown target $3200 - $3100 based on the height of the flagpole. This also coincides with a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the drop from the flag pole after we were only able to manage a 38.2 fib retracement so the 168.2 fib extension is quite feasible. If we break below the target of the h&s, we also breakdown below the support of the falling wedge as well as our weekly SMA200 so things could turn very bearish if we have a daily close below $3200 as well as our weekly SMA200 support.
If we do drop below our weekly SMA200 support and go on to retest the December lows, then we could either have a strong bounce back above our weekly SMA200 resistance for a strong move to the upside, alternatively, we might drop straight past our December low, in which case I'm not even sure that our $3k support would hold.
A bullish break from the falling wedge could has an upside target of $4000/$4200 at this stage, but better to cross that bridge once we get there and have a bigger picture of all this.
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous post:
On the lower time frames we seem to be printing another bear flag and potentially a continuation head and shoulders (not as common as the reversal pattern but still happens). This is playing out within a larger falling wedge which is bullish, however, we have 2 bearish scenarios depending on which target we reach when the 2 bearish patterns play out and this will decide if that is in fact a falling wedge (looks a bit stretched imo but might work since we have bullish divergence of the daily MFI but it all depends on our weekly SMA200 support, which I suspect we might not even reach considering the amount of buy orders sitting around that region.
The h&s has a breakdown target of $3300 - $3350 which is also more than a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the wave down from the head and this will come close to our weekly SMA200 which is currently sitting around $3300. This would also coincide with the larger falling wedge support which means the bullish case would still be in play.
The bear flag, however, has a breakdown target $3200 - $3100 based on the height of the flagpole. This also coincides with a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the drop from the flag pole after we were only able to manage a 38.2 fib retracement so the 168.2 fib extension is quite feasible. If we break below the target of the h&s, we also breakdown below the support of the falling wedge as well as our weekly SMA200 so things could turn very bearish if we have a daily close below $3200 as well as our weekly SMA200 support.
If we do drop below our weekly SMA200 support and go on to retest the December lows, then we could either have a strong bounce back above our weekly SMA200 resistance for a strong move to the upside, alternatively, we might drop straight past our December low, in which case I'm not even sure that our $3k support would hold.
A bullish break from the falling wedge could has an upside target of $4000/$4200 at this stage, but better to cross that bridge once we get there and have a bigger picture of all this.
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous post:
Revised Entry: $3240 USDT