Bitcoin's ascending triangle (continuation or reversal?)

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Good day Traders

Bitcoin had the retracement we were looking for although it did arrive with a rock hard landing, finding support at our daily SMA100, and it seems we're now in a corrective phase after reaching $4200 for a double top , and what looks like resistance for a large ascending triangle , which has become apparent now that this move has played out.

Ascending triangles can either be a continuation pattern, or a trend reversal pattern, so this really can go either way.

I'm now expecting a 50 fib retracement of wave A to around $4k, before concluding the corrective phase with a drop to our daily SMA50 and ascending triangle support somewhere around $3550/$3650.

We should then bounce from triangle support and make a decisive move towards our SMA128 resistance, which has been significant S/R if you look back. This will also be a 3rd attempt at the $4200 ascending triangle resistance, but the difference this time is that we will be meeting major trend line resistance from our ATH . I'm still not convinced that we can break through that resistance and we will need a strong volume profile to get the job done.

If we do manage a breakout to the upside, we have a minimum upside target of $5200, which is based on the height of the triangle and would mean a retest of our daily SMA200.

If we can't break resistance, we may consolidate along the ATH descending trendline before dropping back to support and breaking down for a crash to around $2800 which is our first profit target, and also based on the height of the triangle.

We should then either retrace back to our weekly SMA200 (+- $3270) or we will consolidate briefly, similarly to when we had brief consolidation around $5600, before continuing the drop to $2400, bouncing to retest our $2800 resistance, before crashing (capitulation?) to our $1800/$2000 support, and potentially lower.

The grey price bars were copied from our November 2018 drop , which is the height of the pole for the second profit target, and fits the scenario quite well.

Good luck and happy trading!

Previous chart:

Trade closed: target reached: Closed long positions
Swing and a miss
Looks promising, thanks
+1 Reply
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