Bitcoin taking the scenic route

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good day Traders

Bitcoin has found support at our daily SMA100, with SMA50 sitting just below at around $3630, and our weekly SMA200 not too far below that, around $3360, although ideally that uptrend support holds, which is currently sitting around $3435.

For the short term, we could start retracing back up from here, although I suspect we'll have a pullback once we reach around $3930, before one last drop back to our uptrend support.

If we do drop below below that uptrend support, we could be retesting the lows, however, if we are in a corrective wave 4 starting from our $3122 December 2018 low, then we should be en-route to retest our channel resistance and daily SMA200 somewhere around $5k to complete wave 4.

Once we reach channel resistance, we should then retest our uptrend support around $3900, and if we drop below both uptrend and our weekly SMA200 levels of support, then that could be the start of the final impulse wave 5 to put an end to this bear market once and for all, and where I expect price to eventually revert to the initial uptrend of the cycle sometime at the end of this year.

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Good luck and happy trading!

Wave 4:

Reversion to initial cycle and swing high from previous cycle:

Comment: SMA100 support still holding strong. If we don't fall below that uptrend support and we maintain bullish structure, I'll be targeting $4830 - $5230 (50-61.8 fib retracement of the Nov/Dec 2018 drop) for the end of Wave 4, which can be worked out by drawing a trendline through the bottoms of wave 1 and 3 and then drawing a parallel line through the top of wave 2. This gives us a trend channel with the upper resistance being our wave 4 target.

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