BTCUSDT Price Squeezing > Year Open
Important things to note:
Macro environment does not look great.
Fed raised rates 25 bps (not a big deal).
Fed likely will raise 6 more times however market likely priced in rate increases.
Recession will likely follow, should be seen by Sep and reported on at years end.
Commodity prices are flying.
BTC supply low, demand is increasing.
Volume increasing.
Price has been squeezing and I likely see the price meeting the year open one way or another.
Alts likely to follow price increase, however, this may be short lived.
Hey everyone! So things are not looking bad for BTC in general, however the macro environment looks terrible. I do not necessarily think this is a bad thing for BTC though. I believe through this next year or so BTC will have its chance to show its worth as a hard storage of wealth. Right now the price has been squeezing for awhile. I figured BTC would have made its move by now, but we are still waiting for the big jump to the year open. I see two scenarios playing out here: 1 - price will fall and test trendline followed by a run to the year open 2 - price is squeezed immediately to year open. I believe the latter is most likely. There is a lot of things playing out at the moment and it is important to see how the price reacts to the year open range. Otherwise, we might see a lower high and more damage for the coming months. Right now, I am carefully hopeful short term and extremely confident longer term (until 2023). BTC is looking great from a supply side, however the demand needs to be higher. I think these uncertain times may play in the favor of BTC. Gold is set to make a push higher in the coming years and I believe BTC will follow in a big way. With a recession on the horizon, it is tough to guess how altcoins will perform during these times, however being conservative is always the best bet. BTC will be fine in my opinion. Thanks again everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Macro environment does not look great.
Fed raised rates 25 bps (not a big deal).
Fed likely will raise 6 more times however market likely priced in rate increases.
Recession will likely follow, should be seen by Sep and reported on at years end.
Commodity prices are flying.
BTC supply low, demand is increasing.
Volume increasing.
Price has been squeezing and I likely see the price meeting the year open one way or another.
Alts likely to follow price increase, however, this may be short lived.
Hey everyone! So things are not looking bad for BTC in general, however the macro environment looks terrible. I do not necessarily think this is a bad thing for BTC though. I believe through this next year or so BTC will have its chance to show its worth as a hard storage of wealth. Right now the price has been squeezing for awhile. I figured BTC would have made its move by now, but we are still waiting for the big jump to the year open. I see two scenarios playing out here: 1 - price will fall and test trendline followed by a run to the year open 2 - price is squeezed immediately to year open. I believe the latter is most likely. There is a lot of things playing out at the moment and it is important to see how the price reacts to the year open range. Otherwise, we might see a lower high and more damage for the coming months. Right now, I am carefully hopeful short term and extremely confident longer term (until 2023). BTC is looking great from a supply side, however the demand needs to be higher. I think these uncertain times may play in the favor of BTC. Gold is set to make a push higher in the coming years and I believe BTC will follow in a big way. With a recession on the horizon, it is tough to guess how altcoins will perform during these times, however being conservative is always the best bet. BTC will be fine in my opinion. Thanks again everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Comment:
So much for a liq candle. LOL. The BTC gods will not allow liq.
Comment:
ETHBTC looks good too. I would suspect that many alts would do well soon. Even the alts that are destined to die would likely see a lower high soon. I know it was hard to hear me say I was buying through FEB/MAR on almost every post, but you will understand why I did soon enough.
Comment:
Another thing I talk about a lot in my posts are my derivative strategies I use (cash n carry, delta neutral spreads, arb, etc). Some quant actually wrote a really good article regarding this strat. Since I cannot share the link without being slapped on the hand by TradingView, here is the gist of it:
"Delta neutral is a type of strategy where the total exposure to a specific asset is 0. For example, let’s say you spot a price difference between Binance and FTX. A way you could make money out of this is to lend 1ETH on Binance and sell it. Buy 1ETH on FTX and send it over to Binance to repay your loan. This way you have no exposure but can still make a profit. So, what exactly are funding rates? The funding rate is a mechanism to ensure that the perpetual futures contract price stays near the index or price of the underlying. If the perpetual is trading at a premium to the underlying index, long positions pay funding to the short positions. If the perpetual is trading at a discount to the underlying index, short positions pay funding to long positions. The funding rate to be paid/received is determined by the following formula:
position size * TWAP of ((future — index) / index) / 24
This is an example from FTX, but the formula differs from exchange to exchange depending on their funding rate interval.
How can we profit from this mechanism?
In the following example, we have a stable funding rate of 0.0198%/hour for the Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual future (i.e. BTC-PERP). This means that the longs will pay the shorts. To collect this funding rate all we have to do is short the BTC-PERP to get paid an hourly fee for our position.
But of course, this will create an exposure to the BTC price, which we don’t want. So we buy 1 BTC on the spot market to hedge our initial short position. Since we now own 1 BTC & are short 1 BTC-PERP, the price change of BTC will have no impact on our capital. In the span of these 24 hours, we will get paid a total of 309.09$ while having no exposure to BTC at all."
-kasper vandeloock
If you want to see the entire article, look it up. Also, TWAPing is basically DCAing with a large sum of money. Delta neutral trading is a great strat when the funding is in your favor and you do not want to take a directional position because you are uncertain. Remember investing and trading is all about profiting while minimizing risk. Cheers!
"Delta neutral is a type of strategy where the total exposure to a specific asset is 0. For example, let’s say you spot a price difference between Binance and FTX. A way you could make money out of this is to lend 1ETH on Binance and sell it. Buy 1ETH on FTX and send it over to Binance to repay your loan. This way you have no exposure but can still make a profit. So, what exactly are funding rates? The funding rate is a mechanism to ensure that the perpetual futures contract price stays near the index or price of the underlying. If the perpetual is trading at a premium to the underlying index, long positions pay funding to the short positions. If the perpetual is trading at a discount to the underlying index, short positions pay funding to long positions. The funding rate to be paid/received is determined by the following formula:
position size * TWAP of ((future — index) / index) / 24
This is an example from FTX, but the formula differs from exchange to exchange depending on their funding rate interval.
How can we profit from this mechanism?
In the following example, we have a stable funding rate of 0.0198%/hour for the Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual future (i.e. BTC-PERP). This means that the longs will pay the shorts. To collect this funding rate all we have to do is short the BTC-PERP to get paid an hourly fee for our position.
But of course, this will create an exposure to the BTC price, which we don’t want. So we buy 1 BTC on the spot market to hedge our initial short position. Since we now own 1 BTC & are short 1 BTC-PERP, the price change of BTC will have no impact on our capital. In the span of these 24 hours, we will get paid a total of 309.09$ while having no exposure to BTC at all."
-kasper vandeloock
If you want to see the entire article, look it up. Also, TWAPing is basically DCAing with a large sum of money. Delta neutral trading is a great strat when the funding is in your favor and you do not want to take a directional position because you are uncertain. Remember investing and trading is all about profiting while minimizing risk. Cheers!
Comment:
There's the BTC breakout thanks to LUNA, now wait for the retest.
Comment:
My first target on my last ADA chart just hit. Yay me.
Comment:
We hit the BTC target for year open price. Now, we want to see a retest, hopefully 44k. If we do not retest, I will assume that despite any pushes higher, he will eventually return to the range to retest at some point.
Comment:
I should also mention the minimum retest should be 453xx to close CME gap up.
Comment:
Most people did not see 44xxxk coming. But you guys did (I hope). I expect us to flip long soon. Give it about a week to flop around in range. Reclaim 46, then push to 53. Cheers.
You can't see it on this chart, you would have to look at BTC1!