ProR35

18/03/24 Weekly outlook

KUCOIN:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether
Last weeks high: $73775.8
Last weeks low: $69170.3
Midpoint: $64564.9

After making consecutive new ATH's Bitcoin has now experienced it's first prolonged pullback. Before these last few days we saw each dip as more of a leverage flush with a near instant V-shaped recovery. This however is more of a traditional pullback, the main level of note is the previous cycles ATH of 69K . The MIDPOINT now signifies that level and for me and on the HTF a potential Swing Fail Pattern (SFP). If we do see a clear rejection off 69K This could be the start of one of Bitcoins signature 30% Bullrun pullbacks to punish late longers and any unexperienced retail holders. This would see price drop to 52K area.

Personally I think leverage flushes are going to be common place as they always are and we are due a routine pullback, A pre-halving pullback occurred in the previous halving, -20% before rallying post halving. If we assume history will repeat itself then that would see price fill the large wick at 59K from the previous flush, entirely possible in my opinion.

As for the bulls, the ETF'S have been buying up any sellside pressure since the beginning of the calendar year and with the halving only ~30 days away it's hard to see Bitcoins price being allowed to fall as what is essentially a land grab is going on, there are simply too many buyers.

The Nvidia AI conference begins today! Monday until Thursday and the crypto space is anticipating volatility to come from this event. Projects such as RNDR, FET, NEAR and other AI & DePIN tokens are expected to be impacted the most. The question is always going to be is this a sell the news event? The AI space has rallied significantly in the previous months however I would say that company with a valuation of $2.2T, (roughly 50% more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin), bringing attention to these crypto projects and at least making the link between the two is a positive for the industry and can only bring more attention and money to the space.


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