Hello everyone, rouzwelt here
This post is about analyzing the probabilities of a successful reversal and it'll be brief. As you can see in the chart price is about to break above the red down-trend line and if it manages to do so then we will see an early sign of bulls showing up to fight back, but that's only the first step. The second step for them is to move past the last impulse move up which is in line with 0.382 fib retracement level, this might be the easiest step in their way up. But the real challenge for them to change the short-term bias in their own favor is to break above the last swing high which is in line with 0.618 fib retracement level that makes it a strong resistance level (yellow dotted line). They also have another small step after those which is to break above the purple channel, but I don't think that it would be a difficult job for them if they have already passed the previous ones successfully.
So there are 3 steps in their way to be able to change the odds here, and if they succeed in doing that then they might begin to bring price back to upper side of the 30/40k range which will give them another chance to test the 42k level and maybe break above it this time.
But until they manage to do so, bears are still in control, although they are not doing much. And any failure from bulls in those 3 steps would make bears' job even easier, as rejection at those said fib levels are highly probable, and they also would be good short entry points if price reaches to those levels because the main trend is to the down side, and whenever that is the case you better look for short entry points at impulse moves up, as in down-trend generally speaking, resistance levels manage to hold and reject the price.
That's all for now and please consider supporting me by hitting like if you find my post informative and please comment if you have any opinion about my analysis, I'd appreciate it a lot. Enjoy your weekend and trade safe.
This post is about analyzing the probabilities of a successful reversal and it'll be brief. As you can see in the chart price is about to break above the red down-trend line and if it manages to do so then we will see an early sign of bulls showing up to fight back, but that's only the first step. The second step for them is to move past the last impulse move up which is in line with 0.382 fib retracement level, this might be the easiest step in their way up. But the real challenge for them to change the short-term bias in their own favor is to break above the last swing high which is in line with 0.618 fib retracement level that makes it a strong resistance level (yellow dotted line). They also have another small step after those which is to break above the purple channel, but I don't think that it would be a difficult job for them if they have already passed the previous ones successfully.
So there are 3 steps in their way to be able to change the odds here, and if they succeed in doing that then they might begin to bring price back to upper side of the 30/40k range which will give them another chance to test the 42k level and maybe break above it this time.
But until they manage to do so, bears are still in control, although they are not doing much. And any failure from bulls in those 3 steps would make bears' job even easier, as rejection at those said fib levels are highly probable, and they also would be good short entry points if price reaches to those levels because the main trend is to the down side, and whenever that is the case you better look for short entry points at impulse moves up, as in down-trend generally speaking, resistance levels manage to hold and reject the price.
That's all for now and please consider supporting me by hitting like if you find my post informative and please comment if you have any opinion about my analysis, I'd appreciate it a lot. Enjoy your weekend and trade safe.
