IvanLabrie
Long

Oil: Emerging uptrend

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
a year ago
Crude oil             has reached the weekly downtrend target I had labeled on my charts, and way ahead of time.
Amidst droves of hype, and news stories about Iran's contribution to global glut, and panic, oil             started rallying (typically, after reaching a sentiment extreme, clearly diagnosed by my mentor, Tim West, in his publication calling the bottom in oil             , with a 10 dollar downside risk, but potential for high 40s up).
The technical elements are there, we're approaching the end of the time for this downtrend, which implies a retest of 45.21 in the coming weeks is possible.

Knowing the general trayectory, we can look for signals in the daily and lower timeframes to enter long positions, and scale in, navigating this emerging uptrend until we hit the target on chart (if we ever do).
For the time being I'm long, and looking to add to this trade.
The recent news about Japan mega-dovish stance has been the catalyst for a surge in the bonds and gold             , and I think this will transpire into oil             and silver             as well.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
a year ago
Comment: Might take a while to resume the move up, but still bullish overall.
a year ago
Trade active: Reentered longs.
a year ago
Comment: If we don't hit 28,99 in 2 days I'll add to longs to average my entry. I'm in it as a pair trade with usdcad longs. (both long)
a year ago
Comment: Tomorrow we'll probably have a buy signal again. To add if still in.
a year ago
Comment: Adding to longs on a new signal.
a year ago
Comment: (not yet, tomorrow maybe, or the day after tomorrow)
a year ago
Comment: Longs are winning this tug of war.
The best strategy is to buy corrections, in this case we have a new potential uptrend signal emerging, right after this new mode has formed. I'll add to longs aggressively once it's confirmed.

snapshot
a year ago
Comment:
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I'll wait for the oil chart to align better for longs. It's considerably choppy in lower timeframes.
a year ago
Comment: 24.67 might get hit. We have a daily downtrend now.
a year ago
Comment: Price stuck at the options expiration support.
a year ago
Trade active: I'm long oil as a pair trade with a gold short.
a year ago
Comment: Great progress!
In from 27.87.
a year ago
Comment: *28.87
a year ago
Trade closed manually: You can exit longs and flip short, use a 3 ATR sl (5 points to be safe) Then trail it closer after 2.5 point profit.
a year ago
Comment: The path was more or less correctly diagnosed.

Now, we reached a critical level, I'm holding shorts from 41.7-41.14, but we might see a new leg up before a steeper retracement begins.

Pay attention to the 39 zone.
Very interesting analysis. I view the weekly continuous oil action like the attached chart and see 42-ish as the next resistance on a weekly basis - should the two week move gain traction. On a shorter term basis oil is tiring out a bit perhaps. But if bulls can gain strength I am watching for resistance at 42-ish.
snapshot