IvanLabrie
Long

Trade weighted dollar: Deflationary crisis?

FRED:DTWEXM   Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies
901 14 27
In this chart I'd like to point out the current trend in the Dollar index             the Fed uses, which is the trade weighted dollar index             . The DXY             or USDOLLAR             tickers everyone's using don't reflect the situation of emerging markets, since they have heavy Euro             and Yen weights in their calculation.

The setup is a monthly uptrend lasting at least until June, and with potential for at the very least 19.85% upside.
It's possible that the Euro             is topping and will become an ideal short, to rejoin this general trend, and I don't expect to see broad dollar bears for the time being.
Now, how will this sway the Fed's intentions, since they consider that a stronger dollar is hurting their inflation targets, and thus their plan of action?
This might be a catalyst for a stocks rally this year, but for now things remain volatile, so I'd advise caution.
Check my gold             , eurusd             and SPY             charts for more information on my perspective on said instruments.

Feel free to stop by the Key Hidden Levels chatroom as well, there my mentor and others trained in this methodology share setups on a daily basis.
If interested in coaching or trade signals contact me privately please.
I run a trading chatroom where I share trading setups on a frequent basis, focusing on EURUSD             , USDJPY             , USDCAD             , Gold             , Silver             , Oil             , Stocks and Bitcoin .

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Trade active: My bets are placed...I'm long USD against SEK and Euro.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Dollar at support.
Comment:
snapshot


USDCLP acting great, USDZAR also looks good.
USDMXN has fired a nice long too, I posted it separately.

USDCNH might need more time to set up.
Comment: Cancel if not filled today.

snapshot
Comment: Nice recovery from support.
Comment: If this support fails, the dollar will be in serious trouble. If we drop, and then crossed the mode, the forecast will change diametrically.
Comment: The support has failed for now, this is considerably negative for the dollar. We might see a top here, confirmed if we drop under the mode line below.
Comment: The dollar has failed to rally to the target we had on time. It might see a healthy correction from here.
Comment: If we see a new monthly low, this is really terrible. Right now I expect some retracement in the dollar decline.
Comment: Dollar near support.
Comment: After failing to rally on close during February, the weakness was confirmed. Now we have breached below the uptrend mode, if we stay under this zone on close we might see even lower lows here.

There's very strong support at May 2015's low though, that would be my guess as to where it stops.
If we manage to move above the mode on close during March, then the odds of continuation decrease. (that would be 90.83 in this chart)
Comment: The dollar closed the month above support, but the price action isn't bullish yet.
Comment: Dollar is finding some support at the mode, thanks to EM currencies weakness due to oil.

Related Ideas

Beauty, love it ;)
+1 Reply
Any thougts About EUR USD? I am shorting it, my targets now approx 1.09***. Cheers
+1 Reply
moneymaking OLIGARCH
Nice mate, me and Ivan are both short eurusd as well. Ivan said he's holding this short for eternity. Hehe, I will probably do the same :)
Reply
OLIGARCH moneymaking
Thanks for your both replying, the only thing that confuses is me, people here drawing Gartley, that is setting up till 1.14 and then terrific short, but If now going short, then gartley will not set up so fast tho. :D Especially if we look at this chart -
EURUSD. Short here (1.1145) for 1.0710. Risk/reward 1:4
Reply
I don't use harmonic patterns nor elliott wave (I'm barely an amateur in neowave, so not relying on it either).
My analysis called for a high probability short against monthly resistance, after reaching the weekly uptrend targets.
Reply
OLIGARCH IvanLabrie
Ivan but do.you see now in your setup first short target around 09***? :) thanks.
Reply
No, I don't have a specific level for a retracement before going sub parity.
Reply
I posted my analysis on it, long term projection.
In the intermediate term I aim for sub parity.
Keep a wide stop, like 1-3 daily ATR from entry. Or 1 weekly or monthly ATR.
Reply
That's not the same dollar index.
(I think that D is way too low)
Reply
Nice analysis Ivan! Thanks for sharing!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO coondawg71
Thanks man.
Reply
good catch mate, gl :)
+1 Reply
yes dollar daily is ugly bearish!!!
Reply
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