IvanLabrie
Long

Trade weighted dollar: Deflationary crisis?

FRED:DTWEXM   Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies
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27
In this chart I'd like to point out the current trend in the Dollar index the Fed uses, which is the trade weighted dollar index . The DXY or USDOLLAR tickers everyone's using don't reflect the situation of emerging markets, since they have heavy Euro and Yen weights in their calculation.

The setup is a monthly uptrend lasting at least until June, and with potential for at the very least 19.85% upside.
It's possible that the Euro is topping and will become an ideal short, to rejoin this general trend, and I don't expect to see broad dollar bears for the time being.
Now, how will this sway the Fed's intentions, since they consider that a stronger dollar is hurting their inflation targets, and thus their plan of action?
This might be a catalyst for a stocks rally this year, but for now things remain volatile, so I'd advise caution.
Check my gold , eurusd and SPY charts for more information on my perspective on said instruments.

Feel free to stop by the Key Hidden Levels chatroom as well, there my mentor and others trained in this methodology share setups on a daily basis.
If interested in coaching or trade signals contact me privately please.
I run a trading chatroom where I share trading setups on a frequent basis, focusing on EURUSD , USDJPY , USDCAD , Gold , Silver , Oil , Stocks and Bitcoin .

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Feb 05
Trade active: My bets are placed...I'm long USD against SEK and Euro.
Feb 05
Comment:
Feb 08
Comment: Dollar at support.
Feb 09
Comment:
USDCLP acting great, USDZAR also looks good.
USDMXN has fired a nice long too, I posted it separately.

USDCNH might need more time to set up.
Feb 09
Comment: Cancel if not filled today.

Feb 11
Comment: Nice recovery from support.
Feb 12
Comment: If this support fails, the dollar will be in serious trouble. If we drop, and then crossed the mode, the forecast will change diametrically.
Feb 17
Comment: The support has failed for now, this is considerably negative for the dollar. We might see a top here, confirmed if we drop under the mode line below.
Mar 07
Comment: The dollar has failed to rally to the target we had on time. It might see a healthy correction from here.
Mar 08
Comment: If we see a new monthly low, this is really terrible. Right now I expect some retracement in the dollar decline.
Mar 16
Comment: Dollar near support.
Mar 26
Comment: After failing to rally on close during February, the weakness was confirmed. Now we have breached below the uptrend mode, if we stay under this zone on close we might see even lower lows here.

There's very strong support at May 2015's low though, that would be my guess as to where it stops.
If we manage to move above the mode on close during March, then the odds of continuation decrease. (that would be 90.83 in this chart)
Apr 01
Comment: The dollar closed the month above support, but the price action isn't bullish yet.
Apr 05
Comment: Dollar is finding some support at the mode, thanks to EM currencies weakness due to oil.
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Comments

good catch mate, gl :)
+1 Reply
Nice analysis Ivan! Thanks for sharing!
+1 Reply
Thanks man.
Reply
Any thougts About EUR USD? I am shorting it, my targets now approx 1.09***. Cheers
+1 Reply
moneymaking OLIGARCH
Nice mate, me and Ivan are both short eurusd as well. Ivan said he's holding this short for eternity. Hehe, I will probably do the same :)
Reply
OLIGARCH moneymaking
Thanks for your both replying, the only thing that confuses is me, people here drawing Gartley, that is setting up till 1.14 and then terrific short, but If now going short, then gartley will not set up so fast tho. :D Especially if we look at this chart -
Reply
I don't use harmonic patterns nor elliott wave (I'm barely an amateur in neowave, so not relying on it either).
My analysis called for a high probability short against monthly resistance, after reaching the weekly uptrend targets.
Reply
OLIGARCH IvanLabrie
Ivan but do.you see now in your setup first short target around 09***? :) thanks.
Reply
No, I don't have a specific level for a retracement before going sub parity.
Reply
I posted my analysis on it, long term projection.
In the intermediate term I aim for sub parity.
Keep a wide stop, like 1-3 daily ATR from entry. Or 1 weekly or monthly ATR.
Reply
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