I think it's clear sentiment is still very negative, and people want to sell the euro higher, no one finds a reason to go long, yet we're in an uptrend.
This is good, if you're long, you're a contrarian for the most part, and when former bears start wanting to go long, they aren't finding a retracement or a way to enter safely (unless they are really brave, because every time the euro falls, retail traders are on the short side, and not buying the dip, according to sentiment reads from FXCM's SSI as well as a general trend in the tradingview publications and chat comments).
Right now, if you want to make money, you should go long, with the current trend, but keep in mind, fundamentally, the euro is a short, in the long term, and we're approaching a very significant resistance. I had long positions, which I sadly unwound, but I might rejoin around these parts. My stop would be considerably wide, and I'd be vigilant to flip short when retail sentiment shifts sides, which I expect to happen if we break the 1.1714 mark like my weekly time at mode signal target suggests.
Interestingly, if April closes above 1.1091, we have a chance to hit 1.2120, but I see this as a more remote probability.
What's the trade here, you'll ask, simple, there is no simple read, the chart is clear though, and sentiment too. Fade the sentiment extreme, they will give up at the top (the bears). If you can, meanwhile, find excuses to go long, there's quite some room left before we can consider shorting EURUSD , unless we have a week's high sitting below 1.09030, in which case, the uptrend would have failed. Until then, any dip is a buy gentlemen.
As a sidenote, the has an uptrend, and is forming modes higher, which gives us reason to long when we observe signs of strength in this timeframe too, but rgmov isn't favoring this approach, implying underlying sentiment is indeed . Risk if going long off the daily, and not on a steep decline, is a new daily low, right now, so, not too safe.
Commercial traders are closing shorts and either going flat or net long the dollar vs the euro it seems.
The move has started I presume.