gb50k

American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacement

Short
COVID19:CONFIRMED_US   COVID-19 CONFIRMED US
Cleaner Chart: The recent increase in acceleration (known as "jerk") of US COVID cases is "re-bending the curve". In this context the verbal descriptions of change, and its derivatives ,becomes both interesting and important Charts showing ongoing change in confirmed US COVID19 cases are themselves constantly changing. Understanding these 'charts of change' is a prerequisite for making informed public policy decisions, as well as individual decision making (to mask or not to mask?). Yet verbal explanations of change are outpacing graphical representations in mainstream media. This is the position taken in the NYT article "Bending the curve". To quote the author:

As an old Chinese philosopher never said, “Words about graphs are worth a thousand pictures.”

The public at large understands the concept of displacement: change over time. For example, is the number of new cases per day going up or down? However, the derivatives of displacement are not commonly understood. You may get a blank stare in response to questions like:

1) The US flattened the curve in the spring of 2020. Did that mean fewer new cases per day?
2) "A jerk is responsible for recent spikes in new cases" Is that:
a) a description of change?
b) a political statement?

Methodology:
The chart is a brief overview of the first 4 derivatives of displacement [Left panel and there application to recent (10/25/2020) data on he number of confirmedrUS COVID19 cases.
Raw data was TV's ticker "COVID19:CONFIRMED_US" Each derivative was calculated on a 7-day SMA of the previous step. Both 5MA and 7MA are commonly used in summary graphs published by John Hopkins (2). Deritives are shown for Acceleration and Jerk. A BB% score shows that both Acceleration and Jerk are 2STD above their mean. It is statistically likely that ,as the Jerk becomes more prominent we may experience an upward "Snap" in US COVID cases. While its easy to visualize an acceleration or even a jerk in virus spread (both have exponential growth), it is much harder, and is left as an exercise for the reader, to visualize "snap" spread of a disease.

Another conclusion is that any attempt to "re-flatten the curve" will fail in the presence of persistent jerk.




(1) https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/magaz...

(2) https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases
Trade active: Updated Right Chart

Comments

"American Jerk" behind COVID surge. When I read this I immediately thought it was about Donald Trump.
+9 Reply
@ReallyMe BIDEN =CRIME FAMILY.
+4 Reply
Lukestradamus josephbruinewoud
@josephbruinewoud, TRUMP =PROVEN CRIME FAMILY :)
+5 Reply
rsmit113 Lukestradamus
@Lukestradamus, oh really what proof?
+1 Reply
seferRaziel josephbruinewoud
@josephbruinewoud, ye. based on joe's recent admission of voter fraud (look at the transcript..he elaborates)...based on this its clear he took the plea bargain to cooperate.

more will be revealed.
GOD WINS.
+1 Reply
gb50k ReallyMe
@ReallyMe,
Mission accomplished.
Kidding...that never would have occurred to me. I can certainly see how my last 2-3 lines could trigger preexisting negative attributions in certain individuals.
But use Occam's razor - isnt the easiest explanation that the mathematical concept of "jerk" is appropriate in this context? I mean the alternative is that I spent an hour developing an info graphic to make a pun? Yet, crazier things HAVE happened.
+1 Reply
@gb50k, I thought so when I read the headline. It's a bit of a word mix-up and I thought of jerk=idiot, not of its mathematical meaning. But you shouldn't judge the book by its cover... And now that you have said it, I also read through your last 2-3 lines. That fits. If "The Jerk" becomes more prominent or persistent for another period of time there will be even more trouble. I fully agree with that.
+1 Reply
seferRaziel ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, maybe Tom Hanks will make a movie about it all....oh wait...maybe not.
Reply
the cases you mention, what are they? transmissable? sick? hospitalized? dead? no none of that. The cases you note are false positives from a PCR test that doesnt show infections.See the inventor himself. At best it can only show remains of a rna virus, scrap tso to speak.
this expains why the curve of real cases and deaths similar to past 10 years of the regular flu already flattened in april. so deaths and hospitalisation go down, but cases go up? guess whos tinkering with the data.
+6 Reply
@Reau, the same people who faked the moon landing back then?
+3 Reply
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