The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.
After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)
"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model
Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)
P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
"After the Year of the Fire Rooster in 2017 infused the world with optimism and a desire to shake things up, the upcoming Year of the Earth Dog will bring conservatism and possibly a slew of natural disasters, a Hong Kong-based fortuneteller says."
"The previous two years – of the Fire Monkey and Fire Rooster – were both marked by the optimistic "fire" element, which has contributed to the global economic growth, Lo says. But now it's all coming to an end. The Dog year will bring decline in economic growth and activities leading to longer term setback of the stock market and more economic ," Lo says. The next fire year won’t come until 2025, and in the meantime markets are expected to be bearish."
Freeze sees a strong downtrend starting in the year 2018 based upon the analytical framework of W.D. Gann and the 20-year cycle.
Quote: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast is based upon the natural 20-year cycle that Gann identified. My average scenario forecasts a -15.29% price return for 2018. The cumulative price return is forecast to bottom in June 2020 at -20.39%, at which time an extended rally should ensue. My pessimistic scenario forecasts a -32.90% price return for 2018. The cumulative price return is forecast to be little-changed in June 2020 at -31.23%, at which time an extended rally in should ensue."
"The 20-year cycles, from the inception of the NYSE, consist of the following time periods: 1. 1801-1820, 2. 1821-1840, 3. 1841-1860, 4. 1861-1880, 5. 1881-1900, 6. 1901-1920, 7. 1921-1940, 8. 1941-1960, 9. 1961-1980, 10. 1981-2000, and the current cycle 11, 2001-2020. Due to limitations of acquiring historical data, the data set of the Dow Jones Average used in this analysis consists of monthly closing prices beginning in January 1901, the sixth 20-year cycle."
I came across similar research results which were published in August 2016 by Ahmed Farghaly. His cycle-based outlook for 2017 has been wrong in hindsight (he was only bullish for Q1 2017 and Q2 2017), but due to the similar forecast I wanted to share this nonetheless. Ahmed wrote: "The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected."
Quote: "In each phase, there have been remarkably similar events and battles (mostly economic/financial battles but the overarching 80-Year Cycle has also timed America’s most challenging and culture-shaping military battles as well – next coming into play in 2021) – all of which included struggles with currency (paper/fiat & hard/metals), investments (stocks, bonds & others), food (crop crises) & the overall economy (bubbles, panics, crashes, recessions & depressions)."
While not a perfect match, Hadik also mentioned the "overarching 80-year cycle" as being related to his 40-year cycle discovery, which is a very rough match with Brad Gudgeon's 88-year human generation cycle discovery (44-year cycle when halved) and Sandy Jadeja's 84-year cycle discovery (42-year cycle when halved).
Quote: "(...) another cycle I use: the 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle" (...) "Central banks have done more damage than simply delaying the downturn.", "We are now preparing for a shakeout more painful than anything we’ve seen before. We have years of unprecedented government stimulus and money creation to thank for stretching this bubble beyond imagination and making the burst more painful than anything we’ve ever experienced… "
Harry Dent has also written very bullish stock market related books in the past like "The Roaring 2000s" (published 1998) and "The Next Great Bubble Boom" (published 2004), so he is not a perma-bear.
"The main theme of Bannister’s outlook puts a target for the S&P 500 at 2,500 in 2017, followed by a top in 2018 and a bear market the year after. " (as of March 2017)
"Bannister’s forecast of a market peak and economic slowdown starting in 2018 is largely based on the idea that we are three years into a Fed tightening cycle when looking at the “Shadow Fed Funds rate.”
Here is a 30-minute interview with him (from March 2017, released in July 2017)
"A scientific paper by Charles J. Collins points out one simple correlation of solar-stock market movements that will, fortunately, come to another test within the two or three years ahead "
"Statistically speaking, the current sunspot Cycle 24 is scheduled to draw to a close sometime in 2019."
Quote: "I came across an article in Barron’s, written by one of the largest fund managers at PIMCO. He was touting the sunspot cycle, saying how it had saved him from the 2000-2002 tech wreck. I dug into this phenomenon, which scientists can track back to the 1600s accurately, and I found that 88% of the recessions back to the mid-1800s (where there is good data) occurred in the downside of these sunspot cycles! Damn! And better, 100%, 11 out of 11 major financial crises, occurred in the downside of this cycle – like the one I’m forecasting just ahead between 2018 and 2020 by my forecasts."