1930s Great Depression Fractal to 2020
Good Evening All,
If economic conditions do not get better and the "Unlimited QE" cannot backstop the selling of HYG and LQD bonds, we should be expecting a similar style of depression in the coming 1-2 years. My thoughts, we may have a mild multi-quarter recession until 2021 Q1.
After this 2021 recovery we then again go back to our devious ways of having zombie companies propped up on bad debt and government stimulus. This will add to the "Everything bubble" and at some point it WILL burst. And then we will almost certainly have a depression MUCH worse than 1930s great depression.
Remember that the real economy is completely disconnected from the stock market. You've probably seen the market go up on several occasions even as more deaths due to COVID roll in or unemployment numbers of 3M, 6.5M, and just this week another 6.6M - this means that the market is still in its deleveraging phase and/or it's truly ready to take advantage of free government stimulus and rally higher towards all-time high levels.
Hope you stay protected and risk averse in the market!
Cheers
If economic conditions do not get better and the "Unlimited QE" cannot backstop the selling of HYG and LQD bonds, we should be expecting a similar style of depression in the coming 1-2 years. My thoughts, we may have a mild multi-quarter recession until 2021 Q1.
After this 2021 recovery we then again go back to our devious ways of having zombie companies propped up on bad debt and government stimulus. This will add to the "Everything bubble" and at some point it WILL burst. And then we will almost certainly have a depression MUCH worse than 1930s great depression.
Remember that the real economy is completely disconnected from the stock market. You've probably seen the market go up on several occasions even as more deaths due to COVID roll in or unemployment numbers of 3M, 6.5M, and just this week another 6.6M - this means that the market is still in its deleveraging phase and/or it's truly ready to take advantage of free government stimulus and rally higher towards all-time high levels.
Hope you stay protected and risk averse in the market!
Cheers
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